2018年1月31日 星期三

走入《易經》乾卦元亨利貞的卦象裡面,凡事大吉 《易經》思維論壇 ~ 在各領域的運用案例十分鐘與談講稿(待精簡) 2018/1/29 商周書房 日前我參加《易經》思維論壇,與談《易經》在各領域的運用案例。我的與談的要點是:主動走入乾卦元亨利貞四德的卦象裡面;凡是,抱持正心善念,虔誠走進元、亨、利、貞的卦象中,那麼,個人可以成功經營事業;政府則可以有優良治理;進而,兩岸會有和諧的,和平的千秋發展。 占卜可以得到隨機的、偶然的卦象,有不同的吉凶;《易經》的吉凶斷辭多數是以吉、凶、悔、吝、無咎、厲等來表達。但是,若主動的選擇一個特殊的卦象,例如,走入乾卦元亨利貞四德的卦象裡面,虔敬照卦象行事,則無往不利,必有大吉。 《易經》的「變化」與「天道秩序」 《易經》是中國最古老的文獻之一,儒家尊為五經之首。《易經》以一套符號系統來描述狀態的變易,表現了中國的文化哲學和宇宙觀。它的中心思想,是以陰陽兩種元素去描述世間萬物的變化和規律。 「易」有幾種解釋: 東漢鄭玄的著作〈易論〉認為「易一名而含三義:簡易一也;變易二也;不易三也。」這句話總括了易的三種意思:「簡易」、「變易」和「恆常不變」。即是說宇宙的事物存在狀能的是:順乎自然的,表現出易和簡兩種性質;時時在變易之中;又保持一種恆常。  「簡易」:宇宙中所有的事物,不論多深奧、多繁雜,《易經》告訴我們其根本道理都是簡單的;將自然界的原則,以陰陽二元來說明,簡單容易來瞭解。  「變易」:宇宙萬物都是生生不息、不斷變化、循環不止的。繫辭上傳曰「生生之謂易」;孔穎達注易云「易者,變化之總名,改換之特稱。自天地開闢,陰陽運行,寒暑迭來,日月更生,孚萌辟類,亭 毒辟品,新新不停,生生相續,莫非資變化之力,換代之功 ,謂之為易,即變化之義。」「易」最基本 的意義就是指有秩序、有規律的變化和創生不已而言。  「不易」:告訴我們宇宙萬象雖然變化多端,但是在變化之中,還是有其不變的道理存在。就好像地球的位置一直在變,但是它繞著太陽跑的道理卻一直不變。如《詩經》所說「日就月將」或「如月之恆,如日之升」,日月的運行表現出一種非人為的自然,這是簡易;其位置、形狀卻又時時變化,這是變易;然而總是東方出、西方落這是「不易」。日升而天明,日落而天黯。明而接黯,黯而續明。終而復始,無始無終。一如生死。一如成敗。一如興亡。合明,生,成,興之類為陽。總黯,死,敗,亡之屬為陰。陰陽相生相剋,萬事周而復始,是謂易。繫辭傳雲,生生之謂易。生生者,不絕也。 (維基百科 https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/%E6%98%93%E7%BB%8F ) 《易經》揭示自然有兩個特徵:一是,自然是變化的,萬事萬物都是永不停息地在變;二是自然的變化中有包含著恒常的東西,這個恒常的高度概括就是陰陽轉化。《易傳》說,“一陰一陽之謂道”就是這個意思。萬事萬物是一個陰陽,世界也是一個陰陽。《易經》還認為,自然秩序不僅有恆常,而且這種恒常是絕對的善,值得人去絕對信賴。《易傳》說,「天地之大德曰生」就是這個意思。天地之大德,就是自然秩序之大德,就是自然秩序的恒常。生就是生養,包括是生養萬物和生養人類。 《混沌理論》的「變化」與「平衡秩序」 這裡說一個混沌和秩序的故事:氣象學者羅倫茲Edward Lorenz的《混沌理論》(Chaos Theory)揭示混沌系統看似雜亂,但其中仍存在規律和秩序。他用數學和許多氣候預測模型來作印證。他用「蝴蝶效應」來形容混沌現象:「一隻蝴蝶在亞馬孫雨林中輕拍翅膀振動空氣,引起一連串的大氣擾動,三個月後可能導致美國德州發生颶風。」這只是一個生動的比喻,不是說一定或不一定發生颶風,真正的意思是初始條件的敏銳依賴和影響,亦即,很微小的變化有可能造成迥然不同的結果。混沌無處不在。也就是:簡單產生了複雜、平衡趨向斷裂、秩序內含有隨機。混沌系統的演化對初始條件的選取非常敏感,初始條件極微小的分別,在一段時間的演化後也可帶來南轅北轍的結果。混沌現象──裊裊炊煙、風中來回擺動的旗幟、水龍頭由穩定的滴漏變成零亂、複雜不定的天氣變化…;「變化」是不可測的,一些簡單模式中所隱藏令人驚訝的複雜行為。 羅倫茲的偉大成就是他穿越了混亂,看到了隱藏於混亂中的秩序,在「混亂」和「秩序」之間搭起了統一的橋樑,並揭示出自然世界「亂中有序」的結構。他喜歡用一個比喻來說明平衡的秩序是存在的,他指著桌上有一杯熱燙的咖啡說:「這裡面的分子有複雜的混亂運動,我們無法預測下一分鐘的運動變化狀況,但是,可以確定的是這一杯咖啡在二個小時後的溫度必定趨向和室溫一致。」這也是熱力學上熱平衡的法則,熱趨向和大環境氣溫平衡的。混沌系統看似雜亂,但其之中仍存在規律性以及秩序。零亂往往是初相,混沌之中隱藏著更深層次的規則。著名的「羅倫茲吸子」(Lorenz attractor)告訴我們無秩序中存在著新秩序。「羅倫茲吸子」顯示數據表面一團混亂下,仍有精緻且規律的結構。若系統永遠不重覆自己,軌跡必須永遠不相互碰觸,且無止休的打圈子。雖然不重覆,但是軌跡會一直像是繞著兩個圈圈一樣,就像是行為被圈圈吸過去。所以稱為「羅倫茲吸子」。 混沌系統看似雜亂,但其之中仍存在規律性以及秩序。例如地球每天的天氣,存在於一個變化無窮的不可預報系統中一般,而氣候卻又呈現年復一年相當程度的規律性。數值只有在某些範圍內起落,但絕不超過固定的範圍。例如二十四時節和氣候,從立春、雨水、驚蟄…到冬至、小寒、大寒等,反映太陽運行週期的的規則,是不規則的天氣中仍存在著節氣的大秩序。 上面,經比較《易經》與《混沌理論》(近代20世紀60年代新興物理顯學之一);两者相差四千年年。發現其中「變化」與「混沌」是類似的,相同的;「天道」與「秩序」是一致的道理。 《易經》在不同領域的運用 自然法則主宰著萬物的運行,可適用在氣候、物種、自然、社會科學等變遷;也當可適用在小至個人、家庭、事業經營…,到政府治理,以至於兩岸以及人類和平發展上面。凡是,追求圓滿成功,第一,先要從良善的心念出發,才能有良善的作為,得到良善的結果。也就是讓圓融善美的狀態生產出來成為圓融善美的結果。第二,遵循自然天道和秩序,努力創造,營造一個良善的、和諧的、有序的大環境,讓一切心念、事物、經營自然趨向此優良的大環境去平衡發展,最後得到圓滿成功的結果;就像一杯咖啡不可測的分子紛亂運動,終了回歸周圍環境的平衡氣溫。平衡、秩序是自然法則,是天道。 那麼,什麽是良善的心念?什麽是和諧的、有序的、優良的大環境呢? 即是,《易經》「乾卦:元亨利貞」與「坤卦:元亨利牝馬之貞」中的四德;元、亨、利、貞為《易經》中的四德。 易經的第一卦,乾卦,講的是一個事物從發生到繁榮的過程。乾卦,卦象是天,特性是強健。象曰:天行健,君子以自強不息,卦辭,元、亨、利、貞。乾卦是根據萬物變通的道理,以「元、亨、利、貞」為卦辭,表示吉祥如意,教導人遵守天道的德行。 原文網址:https://kknews.cc/culture/4mayknv.html 走入《易經》乾卦元亨利貞的卦象裡面 占卜可以得到隨機的、偶然的卦象,有不同的吉凶;但是,若主動的選擇一個特殊的卦象,例如,走入《易經》乾卦元亨利貞四德的卦象裡面,虔敬照卦象行事,則無往不利,必有大吉。 易經四德 元、亨、利、貞為《易經》中的四德,取自於自然界植物的生長過程。 元:象徵一個事物的初始,對應春天,植物的發芽。 亨:象徵一個事物的成長,對應夏天,植物的生長。 利:象徵一個事物的收穫,對應秋天,植物的開花結果。 貞:象徵一個事物的收藏,對應冬天,植物的落葉過冬。  《易經》四德,元、亨、利、貞可讓你成功經營個人的事業,或是大企業 讀《易》,用《易》,重點在指導我們「元亨利貞」四德。  元:指導我們創始,不要老是跟在人家的後面跑。有為首的,開始的,善的,基本的意思。  亨:指導我們凡事必須亨通,不要老是礙手礙腳。順利,通達的意思。易經坤卦曰:含弘光大,品物咸亨。  利:指導我們世界上沒有絶對的好事和壞事,「合宜」就是好處,就是有利。好處,益處,有益於;祥瑞,順利,如大吉大利。  貞:指導我們永遠走正道,小聰明不足恃,害人終必害己。守正道的,效忠的。堅定的,穩固的意思。(施純協臉書) 諸位如能抱持《易經》四德,元、亨、利、貞經營事業,從良善的心念出發,遵循自然天道和秩序,努力創造,營造一個良善的、和諧的、有序的大環境,將無往不利,最後得到圓滿成功的結果。就像一杯咖啡不可測的分子紛亂運動,終了回歸周圍環境的平衡氣溫。平衡、秩序是自然法則,是天道。 你們如去注意觀察世界上聞名的事業經營人,或是企業家,會發覺,他們一生應是走入《易經》乾卦元亨利貞四德的卦象裡面,照卦象行事,則無往不利,終有圓滿成就。例如,才是昨天(1/28)瑞典家具公司IKEA宣布身價數百億美元的創辦人坎普拉(Ingvar Kamprad)過世,享壽91歲。英國時尚雜誌《Icon》2005年宣布坎拉是全球最有影響力的品味創造者,指出「如果不是IKEA,多數人無法接觸到價格合理的當代設計」IKEA簡約耐用的設計與DIY家具全球知名。IKEA在1956年率先推出平板包裝組合家具後,他們的產品因為其組裝簡單與價格低廉等因素而大受歡迎。英國家具設計師班克斯(Jeff Banks)表示坎普拉的產品為人們製造與設計家居產品的方式帶來了巨大改變。就是一個例子。  《易經》四德,元、亨、利、貞可讓政府有優良治理 台灣曾經是亞洲四小龍之一,經濟繁榮,民生樂利。從民國四十年代農業社會,到出口加工工業;到進口替代,到輕工業發展;到六十年代十大建設,六十年代我國退出聯合國,遭遇空前困難,先總統蔣公抱持堅定意志,提倡「莊敬自強,處變不驚」的號召( 語出《易經》乾卦象辭:天行健,君子以自強不息。),克服萬難,全國政府和人民,自強努力,邁步向前發展;我們猜想,當年恐非由占卜而來,而是先總統帶領政府和人民,堅定走入「莊敬自強,處變不驚」的卦象之中,以號召國人,同心努力。接著,一連串外交逆境,行政院長蔣經國呼應了民間要求改革呼聲,開始以「政治革新」改造政府;於總統任內,在民國75年解除戒嚴,76年可開放黨禁和報禁;到七十年代發展石化鋼鐵等重工業,建立新竹科學園區,八十年代光電、半導體等高科技產業蓬勃發展……等等。中華民國在民主政治,以及民生經濟發展方面,皆有非凡成就。國人常感念當時經國先生的民胞物與,為民造福的胸懷作為,又有一群忠誠為國大員,如孫運璿、李國鼎、趙耀東…更有成千上萬的優秀的公務人員,共同努力奮發。政府懷抱努力福國利民的善念,改革,營造一個政治上和經濟上的良好發展大環境,讓廣大民間的蓬勃活力去自由平衡經營發展,因此,產生了繁榮的經濟,有了富足的社會。此皆是按步就班,國人同心同德,努力來的,於是有了輝煌的成功。張忠模是當年孫運璿院長延攬回國,先在工研院擔任過院長,後來創立了台積電,成為台灣之光;其他例子甚多。科學園區和工研院帶領高科技產業的創立和研究發展,並且外溢擴散,成就了台灣高科技穩固的根基。 拿我個人在政府服務的經驗做例子,這只是眾多政府福國利民作為中很小的例子,例如:民國60到80年代我們延攬了無數高等人才,留學生,學人回國服務,成就了當時的高等教育;舉辦近二十屆國家建設研究會議,引進了國內外許多進步的觀念、技術和作為,創立事業,促進高等科技產業發展;例如,光電、半導體產業、生物科技、汽電共生、環境保護…….等發展,成就耀眼。我們在研考會花了近十年,積極推展資訊建設和便民服務等重要工作,奠定了今日台灣資訊產業和資訊建設的豐碩穩健根基,名列世界前茅;台灣的便民服務也是全民稱讚的;……等等。我們深以為國為民服務為光榮,確實有良好圓滿的、不凡的成就。 回想起來,其實,早期政府的作為是吻合了《易經》元、亨、利、貞四德的卦象,在此卦像中行事,而有所輝煌成就。 公元2000年以後,台灣開始走下坡,停滯不前,脫離了原有的優良的發展大環境,這件事,藍綠都有責任。現在,台灣仍然保有各種紮實的實力優勢,理應有更加向前向上發展的機會。可惜,現今政府以台灣意識形態治國,亂象叢生(如兩岸敵對關係與凍結交流、去中國化、去蔣化、轉型錯亂…等)這是最大錯誤,遠離了《易經》元、亨、利、貞四德;如此恐將難得有所作為,無法造福人民國家。我們多麼盼望政府和國人有所警覺,覺悟,重新決心走入《易經》乾卦元亨利貞四德的卦象裡面,虔敬照卦象行事,則無往不利,以福國利民。  《易經》四德,元、亨、利、貞可讓兩岸有和諧的,和平的千秋發展 我們可以樂觀的看兩岸和平問題。兩岸如果能夠努力去營造開放的、和諧的、平衡的、有序的、…良善的、光明的、開放的大環境;兩岸彼此關懷、尊重、合作發展,共同來促進和平;那麼,從混沌到秩序觀點看,零亂往往是初相,混沌之中隱藏著更深層次的規則,讓混亂回歸到秩序;從熱力學上的熱平衡看,讓大小紛擾自動趨向良好的大環境平衡,像一杯咖啡不可測的分子紛亂運動,終了回歸周圍環境的平衡氣溫。《易經》明示平衡、秩序是自然法則,是天道;《易經》四德,元、亨、利、貞可讓兩岸有和諧的,和平的千秋發展。那麼,讓兩岸自然的趨向有序的和平方向發展,“和平”是終將可以獲得,可以實現的。 兩岸不可把彼此視為敵人;兩岸領導人和人民應保持開闊的胸襟,以理性和大智慧來處理問題,創造圓融善美的新局面。只有從良善的心念出發,才能有良善的作為,得到良善的結果;也就是讓圓融善美的狀態生產出來成為圓融善美的結果。抱持仁愛,努力福國利民。 目前,兩岸可以有所作為:  轉圓現在兩岸冷凍關係的狀態,創造和善的,和諧的大環境;  共同誠心維持兩岸現狀,努力福國利民;讓時間自動去引導良善的和平發展。順乎自然,回歸平衡與和平,也許要等待五十年,一百年都可以,保持「元亨利貞」,終究會有千秋和平。 附註,這裡有一點功課,請你們自行上網,花些時間,研讀下面資料:  《易經》「元亨利貞」探索 I -- 四元德說  《易經》「元亨利貞」探索II – 大亨以正 但元亨利貞最好的解釋應當是:元為始或大,亨為美好條件的聚合,利為宜於....,貞為堅定或守正。整句翻譯為:原本就聚美好的條件於一身,宜於堅定守正。

2017年4月27日 星期四

重貼秋山紅葉,試試這個連接看,也許可打開個別連結,可看到美麗的地方。

重貼秋山紅葉,試試這個連接看,也許可打開個別連結,可看到美麗的地方。https://1drv.ms/w/s!AnnzhcAhr8Ccg-hdCDrDMyeUaXw_hg 秋山紅葉 從Appalachian Mountains秋山紅葉到John Denver "Take Me Home, Country Roads"(, 到勞勃瑞福(Robert Redford)尼克諾特(Nick Nolte)艾瑪湯普遜(Emma Thompson)主演的別跟山過不去 A Walk in the Woods

2017年4月26日 星期三

四十有成__見證行政院研考會的成就與傳承 蔣家興


四十有成__見證行政院研考會的成就與傳承
(刊登在研考雙月刊第33卷第1期2009.02
http://bimn.rdec.gov.tw/lib/lib02/bimn/269/269-5.pdf
蔣家興

祝頌

行政院研究發展考核委員會(以下稱研考會)成立於民國58年,為行政院政策統合協調的幕僚機關,負責辦理研究發展、綜合規劃、管制考核、資訊管理、地方發展、政府出版品流通、檔案管理以及院長交辦事宜。自其成立至今歷四十年,正好是台灣走過從十大建設到推動高科技產業到全面自由化、民主化的歷程,從貧窮到富裕,從落後到現代民主國家的年代。國家的進步發展是政府部門和全體人民共同努力所促進的成就,並且不斷向前、向上發展。政府在不同階段,推動的各項改革政策,並能貫徹執行,充分發揮公共政策領導國家發展的功能。其中,研考會扮演了優質政府治理的規劃者、推動者、管理者的角色,努力福國利民,四十有成,貢獻至巨。讓我借用《詩經》〈衛風.淇奧〉來祝頌;這一節詩歌原是詩人站在淇水岸邊瞻望美盛的綠竹時,引發內心對衛武公的讚美,進而將衛武公之盛德予以形象化。這裡引申為祝頌行政院研考會以及全體學有專精的優秀同仁,有如文采斐然的君子用功努力工作,成就了優良的政府施政,促進國家社會與日俱進發展的寶貴貢獻。

〈衛風.淇奧〉瞻彼淇奧,綠竹猗猗。
有匪君子,如切如磋,如琢如磨。 瑟兮僴兮,赫兮烜兮。
有匪君子,終不可諼兮。

今譯是:看那淇水之湄, 綠竹依依,有一位文采斐然的男子工作努力,有如大匠雕骨器時的用心,琢玉石時的仔細, 那樣悠閑,那樣雅致,那樣磊落,那樣威儀,如此風流瀟灑的男人,我永也不忘記。(*賈福相《詩經》白話新譯〈衛風.淇奧〉http://e-info.org.tw/node/31119
回顧和見證
我在民國八十三年五月至八十九年五月在行政院研究發展考核委員會服務,擔任副主任委員,襄助五任主任委員孫得雄、王仁宏、黃大洲、楊朝祥、魏啟林諸先生綜理行政研究發展、資訊管理、綜合規劃、以及管制考核工作,有六年之久。這是我公務生涯中很愉悅的一段美好時光,和同仁一齊努力工作,研考會四十有成,我們深覺與有榮焉。茲回顧一、二事以見證其成就,並提幾點淺見,供作前瞻「優質政府治理」的參考。
一、 資訊發展與我國電子化政府
這裡引述一段2008/8/22新聞稿「我國電子化政府榮獲布朗大學評比為全球第2名http://www.rdec.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=4103118&ctNode=10001&mp=100」,它說:
「美國布朗大學於97年8月18日發表2008年最新全球電子化政府調查評比報告,我國電子化政府榮獲全球第2名(58.7分),韓國及美國分別獲得第1名(64.7分)與第3名(53.7分)。 此項調查於2008年6月至7月,評比全球198個國家1,667個機關網站,今年我國排名第2,較去年提升1名,新加坡及加拿大則分別位居第4、第5名。
自布朗大學2001年開始進行全球電子化政府評比以來,我國一直排名世界前5名,其中有3年獲得第1名,2年獲得第2名佳績,顯示行政院全力推動電子化政府,致力全民普及運用政府網站資訊與服務,發展便捷線上服務,充實網站內容,提升服務品質及促進政府資訊公開等方面的效益,已受到國際的肯定。同時,依據行政院研考會的調查,民眾對電子化政府的滿意度亦高達62%。 ……………………………………」
這是政府自民國84年規劃推動以網際網路為核心的電子化政府計畫,迄今的具體評比成績,顯見成果卓著,得來不易。
政府有前瞻的視野、願景和作為,才能帶領國家向上發展,凡事皆如此。行政院有鑒於全球推展資訊與通信建設之趨勢,體認國家資訊通信基本建設對我國未來政、經與產業之發展影響深遠,在八十三年八月正式成立「行政院國家資訊通信基本建設(NII)專案推動小組」由行政院政務委員夏漢民擔任總召集人(民國85年由楊世緘政務委員擔任),集合相關部會副首長為委員,下設資源規劃組、網路建設組、應用技術及推廣組、人才培育組、行政暨便民服務自動化組,分別由經建會、交通部、經濟部、教育部及研考會主辦。行政院國家資訊通信基本建設(NII)專案推動小組」從總召集人到各部會成員皆同心齊力,果斷堅決的積極推動,成效斐然。其間,行政院研考會資訊管理處擔任NII秘書處主要幕僚作業,實際負責我國資訊發展與電子化政府的大結構規劃並推動各項發展,成果豐碩。關於NII網際網路的建置、資訊發展,以及我國電子化政府的重要成果請參閱NII 一百問http://www.cs.nccu.edu.tw/~lien/NIIslide/NiiBook/niimain.htm),以及何全德「電子化政府對社會發展的影響」(http://wwwc.moex.gov.tw/public/Data/711712285471.pdf )(此處略過)。
從中可看出研考會直接帶領或參與各項資訊發展與我國電子化政府建置工作中的關鍵角色和具體成果;奠立了我國從中央到地方電子化政府的堅實根基。此外,我們也舉辦百場以上大型推廣演講和研習會議,推動資訊發展,以及Internet網際網路的建置和應用工作;大力推廣給全國民間企業、團體知道什麼是Internet? 什麼是NII? 為什麼要推動?如何能促進政府便民服務?如何能提升人民生活福祉?如何能提升產業競爭能力?企業為什麼要趕快資訊化來改變市場經營的連結方式和體質、利益……等等。有許多朋友和企業團體都曾告訴我們,他們從中獲益良多,讓他們及早踏入Internet網際網路環境中,和世界接軌相通。現在台灣民間各行各業網路發展與應用十分蓬勃、普及,活力無限,也是名列世界前矛。政府扮演創始者、倡導者、推手的角色,建造了一個很良好的資訊發展環境,而民間部門有自由活潑的活力,民間接力,合作無間,生機充沛,不斷向上發展,以致有今日豐碩成果。
因為研考會有領航台灣資訊發展的角色,尤其在政府部門方面,我提幾點意見:
1. 研考會有一群很優秀的資訊專業同仁,並且向外結合眾多大學院校資訊教授,抱持打造優質政府的遠見和執行力量,請持恆努力繼續營造一個很良好的資訊發展環境,讓政府和民間部門在此優良環境中自由、活潑、平衡發展。
2. 凡事不進則退,研考會應經常檢視政府各部門各種有關資訊發展、管理事項是否維護良善,經常把新的資訊應用技術引進來,讓資訊作業及業務常新,與日俱進。每兩年可舉辦一次大型資訊成果觀摩會(或多次分區舉辦);最好是建立一虛擬平臺的全國資訊發展網路博覽會(可借鏡「1996 Internet Expo」的作為,它是促成全世界網際網路蓬勃發展的最大推手之一;當然不可能做到那麼大規模,但是認真去學習它的精神和做法可以了)讓政府部門從中央到地方都上網來參加,也歡迎民間自由參加,大家把成果展出,讓百花齊放、爭鳴,互相學習觀摩,必定熱鬧、精采,保持精進成果。
3. 資訊安全始終是一個最大問題,研考會一向十分注意的。最近New York Times 「Be Afraid. No, Really. 副標題是Cybercriminals Are Winning the Internet」報導說:「…網際網路安全破了門,似乎大家都束手無策….botnet malwares(一系列被感染的電腦在用戶不知情的狀況下, 被用來散發針對其他人的威脅攻擊, 例如垃圾郵件攻擊或是分散式阻斷服務攻擊等毒惡電腦病毒)兩年來逐月快速增長,藉網路到處亂竄到個人電腦、機構主機,由線上結夥強盜(online gang)遙控偷竊信用卡、欺騙銀行、破壞系統……」怵目驚心,實情也是如此。這個問題全世界都努力去防範,我們必須隨時高度警覺,不可掉以輕心,要有切實能力去防範災害。此外,小到硬體和網站的維護備援都要有妥當管理,例如最近總統府網站因中央研究院發生小火災當機幾個小時,這是要防範的。我知道研考會有規定要求各機關、單位備援,最重要的是定期切實查驗。普遍建立Mirror Sites(鏡子複站)也是一個好辦法,應成為正式的規範。
4. 《政府資訊公開法》的立法目的是為建立政府資訊公開制度,便利人民共享及公平利用政府資訊,保障人民知的權利,增進人民對公共事務之瞭解、信賴及監督,並促進民主參與。這個法案原始草案是由研考會在1990年代提出,一直到2005立法院通過,中華民國九十四年十二月二十八日總統公布實施。美國于1966年通過《資訊自由法(Freedom of Information Act)》,為人民提供了查閱聯邦政府資訊文件的法律依據。我國《政府資訊公開法》遲了近四十年實施。布希總統于2007年12月31日簽署《2007年政府公開法》(Open Government Act of 2007) 的新法律,旨在更加提高美國聯邦政府的透明度與公開度。資訊公開為民主的實踐象徵,資訊公開是現代政府治理中極其重要的一環,要做到良善的公共治理,包括依法行政、公開、透明、平等對待人民等,都需要以資訊公開為根本的條件。現在國家檔案局主管資訊公開事項,幾年來已有不錯成果。「數位治理」明顯是走向「優質治理」的大道之一,數位化技術已更臻完備,未來政府應儘量把所有有關《政府資訊公開法》第七條(主動公開政府資訊之範圍)的各項資訊全數數位化,如此《政府資訊公開法》的實踐則可趨完善,這是國家、人民之福。這項大工程不只是國家檔案局的責任,宜訂立共同作業標準規範,研考會資訊處以及各部會都要一齊參與,努力促進政府資訊全數數位化的實踐。

二、政府組織改造
政府組織改造是一個冗長又無效率的歷程。因為沒有結果,所以我說它無效率;其中有一些複雜的問題存在,並非主其事的幕僚機關研考會努力不夠。早在民國76年8月即已成立行政院組織法研修專案小組,由人事局擔任幕僚機關;民國81年3月重組成立「行政院組織法」研究修正專案小組,責由研考會擔任作業機關;87年6月執行組織再造推動計畫;90年10月成立政府改造委員會 ,依據「全國經濟發展會議」決議由總統兼任主任委員。行政院97年2月20日通過「行政院組織法」修正草案,由現行的39個部會精簡為14部、7會及5獨立機關,迄今未獲立法院審議通過。
最近有二則關於「行政院組織法」改造的消息:2008/10/8行政院組織改造推動小組召集人邱正雄副院長表示行政院組織法行政院組織改造將傾聽各界意見,並在既有軌道上持續前進。政府組織改造相關法案已在今年初由前民進黨政府送請立法院審議,但配合政黨輪替,行政院有必要重新傾聽社會各界意見予以檢討調整。2008-12-16 06:21 PM(中央社記者李佳霏台北16日電)行政院研究發展考核委員會主任委員江宜樺今天說,研考會將在明年3月提出新的行政院組織改造版本。江宜樺指出,小組召集人邱正雄在會中宣示,當前行政院組織改造的核心目標,是打造一個效能、便民、創新的政府。

這樣,歷經二十年政府組織改造,幾乎又回到原點,冗長且無結果,此處略過。詳細歷程可參閱研考會網站政府改造與創新 行政組織改造http://www.rdec.gov.tw/lp.asp?ctNode=9841&CtUnit=1695&BaseDSD=2&mp=100 )以及總統府網站歷次「政府改造委員會」紀錄(http://www.president.gov.tw/php-bin/dore2+/list.php4?issueDate=&issueYY=&issueMM=&issueDD=&title=%ACF%A9%B2%A7%EF%B3y%A9e%AD%FB%B7%7C&content=&_section=3&_pieceLen=50&_orderBy=issueDate%2Crid&_desc=0 )。
民國89年以前由行政院本身主導「行政院組織法」研修,90年改由總統府主導改造,應該都很努力去進行,但是都是失敗的。91年6月總統府「政府改造委員會」初步提出改造方案,經過權責機關行政院整理後已提出「行政院組織法修正草案」送到立法院審議(行政院97年2月20日重新通過「行政院組織法」修正草案版本)。 政府改造過程中明顯有若干的迷思和問題存在,或是無迫切改造的理由存在,不然為何二十年無法完成這項政府改造工程?很可惜的,當年「政府改造委員會」提高了層次,由陳前總統兼任主任委員,卻未能對廣義政府包括憲政層面和五院作全面改造。
當然,多年來政府再造並非白忙,這段期間,政府關注世界各國政府改造的情況,許多公共行政的學者專家也一齊進來參與,和世界相連,都是很寶貴的經驗,裨益政府看清問題;其實,政府是邊談邊改善,防止機關人事膨脹,不斷追求良好治理。我知道國家政策研究基金會(一般俗稱國民黨智庫)一直關注著政府組織再造的課題,近年來有許多傑出專家學者提出諸多相關論文或評論,十分中肯寶貴。這裡我搜尋了數十篇關於政府組織再造的相關文章連結如下,請行政院組織改造推動小組成員和同仁參考。
政府組織再造&行政院組織法
http://old.npf.org.tw/script-2/tornado/searcher.exe?p=%ACF%A9%B2%B2%D5%C2%B4%A6A%B3y%26&p=%A6%E6%ACF%B0%7C%B2%D5%C2%B4%AAk&s=1%2C2%2C3%2C4%2C5%2C6%2C7%2C8%2C9%2C10&o=4&a=15&z=1%2C&k=&m=0&Property=1%3B%2C

行政院組織法修訂 http://old.npf.org.tw/script-2/tornado/searcher.exe?p=%A6%E6%ACF%B0%7C%B2%D5%C2%B4%AAk&property=1%3B%2C&o=4&z=1&s=1%2C2%2C3%2C4%2C5%2C6%2C7%2C8%2C9%2C10&z=&a=15&h=0&l=0&f=0&t=0

政府組織再造http://old.npf.org.tw/script-2/tornado/searcher.exe?p=%ACF%A9%B2%B2%D5%C2%B4%A6A%B3y&property=1%3B%2C&o=4&z=1&s=1%2C2%2C3%2C4%2C5%2C6%2C7%2C8%2C9%2C10&z=&a=15&h=0&l=0&f=0&t=0
此外,我有兩點一般意見:
1. 行政院重新檢討修改「行政院組織法」草案,初訂將在明年3月提出新的版本,此時等同回到原始起點;既然從新出發,國家社會環境都在變動,則儘量跳脫以前的框框,用新觀點和態度、開闊視野、借助世界成功標杆,借重各界意見,重新檢視其場域和內容,全新大幅修訂「行政院組織法」草案。舉例,我剛閱讀了彭作奎先生「擺脫三農一體迷思http://udn.com/NEWS/OPINION/X1/4655811.shtml 」就是以前農地農用的時代改變了,他用新環境新思維來看新農業部的設立,很中肯有理(彭是前行政院農委會主任委員,現在是教授,更可超然看問題,應請教他)。前述國政基金會的論文和評論宜十分重視,可交由作業同仁仔細把他們認為的迷失、錯失、問題、世界的標杆比較,修訂的具體主張……等作整理歸納,必有大助益於重訂草案;尤其是幾位學養精湛,長期觀察並深入研究公共行政以及政府組織再造的研究的專家學者,例如,黃國鐘、詹中元、孫本初、李宗勳……諸位先生,他們有很高明的主張,請教他們,請他們直接參與,一定可得到極大幫助;充分借重,擇優執行,則可建造一個優質的新結構政府組織。
2. 行政院組織再造歷經二十年,又回到原點,冗長且無結果,恐怕有其潛在因素;除了缺少共同的集體決心意志以外,我想行政院和立法院府可能認為過去既已存在的組織,必定有其理由,並不急於完成修訂。事實上,目前政府運作仍然順暢有效。那麼,我想即使行政院完成新的「行政院組織法」草案,再送請立法院審議,等待通過,恐非短期內可以實現。果真如此,則政府再造應另闢捷徑,最短途徑宜由行政院全面要求各個機關從本身先行進行改造做起。從釐清職掌、精簡業務事項、效能、便民、創新…等方面著手,例如院長當明確交代機關首長的首要任務是再造各自機關本身;訂立目標、改造準則、作業標準、完成時限……等,要求其各自深入檢討,按律考核其改造成效;明訂機關不得膨脹,減少若干無用、無效率的業務工作,再逐漸減少人事或移轉吻合國家發展所需新興的不同行政部門;並將「中央政府機關組織基準法」及「中央政府機關總員額法」的精神應用於各自機關部門之組織改造;機關首長要有認知,勇於改造,例如移出重疊的業務,或自行減少全數五之一無用、非必需的業務項目或工作量,這是做得到的,…等等。如此,從個別機關的精實再造產生效能成果,累積為行政院組織再造的同等成效。此外,行政院組織改造推動小組對於現代企業網狀扁平組織的成效如何應進行研究;有了良好的連結介面(即網路觀點,現代資訊發展使得資訊傳遞快速,幾乎不分垂直或水平傳達,其多節點連結皆無遠弗屆),現代政府組織如採多節點(多部會)的網狀扁平組織有無可能一樣發揮輕薄、靈活、更見效能的成效。理由請參見:
史美強在「政府治理的制度選擇:網絡觀點」(http://www2.thu.edu.tw/~politic/activity/conference/93yl/04.doc )中指出1980年代以後新公共管理思潮之興起,伴隨而來的是1990年代政府再造運動之風起雲湧,其趨向是將大政府改造成為小而美、小而能的型態。 從1990年代以後資訊科技(ICT)的擴展無遠弗界,網路的連結與資訊科技的生產方式改變了時間與空間的概念。無論在網路的連結或是在實體生活的連結方面,都呈現出綿密的網絡型態,所謂的網絡社會隱然浮現。……因此有必要重新思考政府定位問題,此時,”治理”此一概念被引用的愈來愈廣。簡而言之,自二十一世紀以來政府必須在網絡裡進行治理的工作。…其他文獻,也有現代網狀扁平組織輕薄、靈活、更見效能的探討。

前瞻
----抱持理想邁向「優質政府管理」的新境界

政府的責任在追求「優質政府治理」,以福國利民。「優質政府治理」是政府在任何階段皆努力追求的目標,從早就已開始;但是,世界環境在變動中,政府治理也應隨著作必要的靈活調整改變。這一期研考雙月刊以「優質政府管理」為主題,以為研考會成立四十周年慶祝,作為祝頌和前瞻發展的借鏡,我想定有許多專家學者,以及政府同仁提出學術性的精采寶貴的意見,擇優去執行,努力去實踐,將可提升國家未來向前、向上的優良發展。我在此只提幾點綜觀淺見,請參考。

行政院研考會有一項特殊的角色功能,它是行政院的,甚至可以延伸為國家的行政「智庫」。魏鏞指出:「……民國六十七年孫運璿先生就任行政院院長,在第一次院會中宣示要推動「服務的行政」,並說我要使行政院研考會成為行政院的智庫。…」,以後這個「智庫」角色一直存在,例如隨時提供院長交辦事項之研析意見,以及幾次由總統主持的國家層級的集思會議,如國是會議、國家發展會議、全國經濟發展會議等皆由研考會擔任主要的議事幕僚工作,協助其成功召開。

以美、日智庫為例,美國智庫能對其基本政策提出全新的觀念,經常扮演帶動社會思潮的角色;日本智庫則能彌補政府施政不足,以提供資訊情報為主。智庫的角色功能主要包括:
- 智庫以「政策研究」為中心目標。
- 公共政策應偏向「長期性」與「未來導向型」之研究,但根據美、日對智庫的實際調查顯示,能提供長期性政策建議的甚少,大半仍以現實性、即時性的問題為主要研究探討對象。
- 智庫必須秉持「中立」與「自由」之精神,「自由」是指研究之獨立性。研究方式,首重「共同研究」,是以計畫小組方式行之,即集體研究創思。
- 提出具體政策內容,以因應未來可能發生之問題。
- 蒐集分析資訊,提供各種決策所需之基本資料。
- 開發新的系統方法,以綜合性、學術性的方法來解決問題。提供政策所需的意見或看法。-對基本政策提出全新的觀念,彌補政府施政之不足。

前瞻國家未來發展,我認為研考會應該更加勇於承擔此「智庫」角色,抱持理想,成為開闊的思考者、高遠的觀念創始者、及強有力的政策規劃推行管理者,把「優質政府管理」引領到一個新境界。在實際作為上,下列幾點應格外重視:
- 國家事務要看得高又遠。有廣闊、高遠、超然的思考,秉持「中立」與「自由」之精神深思熟慮問題,新舊多方比較整合,知所取捨。研考會除了開闊思考,實際作為上應勇於碰觸國家更高層面的政策課題,例如,憲政的問題、國家體制的問題….等,改革最短的路宜由建立正當體制結構做起;今年「亂」字成為國家社會的寫照,因選舉而扭曲了正當的行政做為,有無能力去改變?「中立」與「自由」的精神在於抱持宏觀超然,我以為追求「優質政府治理」是政府的責任,以福國利民。在優質以外,如果加上一點優雅的治理品味,則更佳。政府行政變革,有所變,有所不變;有所為,有所不為;施政要求效能,但是宜深思熟慮,要不慌忙,避免急就章提出一堆急忙的可能錯失的施政。用優雅的態度去找到平衡點,穩重向前發展,應是政府的責任所在,也是有品味的「優質政府治理」的意義所在。
- 觀念引導做為,創新的、良善的觀念引導國家社會不斷向前進步發展。一個良好的觀念創始者,應如同一個優良的選礦技師知道如何用工具、方法,耐心去篩選礦砂提煉金、銀。Peter Senge的第五項修煉有兩個十分寶貴的觀點:(1)凡事全面看系統,見樹又見林,又能從小處去執行;(2)深談(Dialogue),讓多面向的深談成為管理文化,持開闊的心胸,廣納各方意見才能把事情做好,產生好結果。有云:「他山之石,可以為玉;他山之石,可以攻錯」一點不錯,學世界標杆,和學者、政府同仁、廣大民眾深談,都十分有益於形成開創性的良善觀念,形成優質政策。我這樣說,好像有點高調不易做到,其實,這是行政心態和文化問題,把它當成必要的修煉,是應該做到的。我很喜歡兩個棒極的網站,一個是「我們的希望地圖-讓我們,抱著希望創造未來吧http://hopemap.net/aboutus.php」,另一個是「TED, Ideas worth spreadinghttp://www.ted.com/index.php/ )」;請大家一定不要錯過,親自上網閱讀。前者是2008總統選舉前由一群關愛我們國家社會的仁愛人士發起設立,茲引述首頁一段願景講話:「……就讓我們在這些基本的立足點上,拼出台灣未來的希望地圖吧。未來的希望地圖是大家的,也是每一個人自己所形成的。千萬個懷著冷靜與善意的國民,共同拼出的這個希望地圖,將送給未來的總統當選人。請他接受我們的付託。……」 這是一個傾聽民意的好地方,至今上面有給新總統、關於個人、社會、世界的300萬個希望。後者TED 是 Technology, Entertainment, Design的縮寫,現在有更廣的範疇。我直接引述:” TED stands for Technology, Entertainment, Design. It started out (in 1984) as a conference bringing together people from those three worlds. Since then its scope has become ever broader. The annual conference now brings together the world's most fascinating thinkers and doers, who are challenged to give the talk of their lives (in 18 minutes). This site makes the best talks and performances from TED available to the public, for free……Our mission: Spreading ideas. We believe passionately in the power of ideas to change attitudes, lives and ultimately, the world. ……..”它開宗明義說”Ideas worth spreading; Inspired talks by the world's leading thinkers and doers.” 在這裡我們可以讀到聽到世界前導思想家也是實踐者十分珍貴的前瞻觀念和看到他們的實踐行為。舉一個例子:
Ms. Ann Cooper是一位食品營養專家,原來是加州一家法國餐廳的大廚師;她關心美國小孩的健康,發覺學校午餐有大量加工食品是有害健康的,將使他們長大後高比率得肥胖、糖尿病或血管疾病。她到處演講疾呼改善小孩午餐飲食,推廣烹飪生蔬營養食物午餐。她後來接受Berkeley County 邀聘為the head of nutrition for Berkeley, California, schools,並實踐推廣至全國許多地方,造福無數小孩。我深為這個從良善觀念到實踐改善小孩健康飲食的故事所感動。其它尚有許多例子,我以為我們政府、學界、民間各界都可以從中借鏡。民間有無限活力,一樣有社會責任,引導創新觀念,一齊參與社會改造,這也是國家治理的一環。
- 研考會賦有政策規劃推行管理者的角色,就應是一個理性前瞻的規劃者,一個強有力的管理者;前瞻才能帶動國家平衡進步發展,強有力的管理才能發揮政府各機關的執行力和效能。我只提醒,政府一向重視中長程政策規劃,先期作業要更加加強,良好政策一定經由深思熟慮才形成;但是也不可任意出主意,有些粗糙的政策要刪除。我的認知,有些政府施政計畫規劃是欠缺「精確」的,如此將造成資源浪費或無法達成執行績效,過猶不及和不夠都是不適當的。地方治理越來越重要,但是計畫能力較為薄弱,應予大力協助加強觀摩、培養。部會施政管理機關績效管理甚好,也有創新的作法,各部會每年的年度績效報告皆需上網公告,公開接受社會大眾的檢視,以促使各部會落實績效管理制度。有一則新聞故事,金管會主委陳冲上任4天,首次到立院財委會接受質詢,立委羅淑蕾就以陳冲的著作「法國狼與貓頭鷹」為題,詢問陳冲要當出主意的貓頭鷹,還是有執行力的法國狼,陳冲率直回答「貓頭鷹加法國狼」。其實,研考會也要學陳冲做有智慧出主意的貓頭鷹,也是有執行力的法國狼。此外,研考會一向著重政府內部管理,社會上經常發生民間對政府公權力有不平的抗議,有無可能當作創新的延伸的政府外部管理事項,隨時去關注,協助解決。例如,報載三鷹部落的原住民從今年二月起遭到台北縣政府強力迫遷,發動數次抗爭,名導演侯孝賢也落髮參加聲援。當然,地方事務由地方政府處理是對的,但是特殊情事,中央給予適當的共同關注和協助,可能有助於解決問題,維護社會和諧。我們常說「人民的小事,是政府的大事」,真誠關懷民眾,特別是對於弱勢群族、團體的關懷幫助,就是政府的責任,「優質治理」的具體實踐在大事,也在小事。
行政院研考會四十有成,我們深覺與有榮焉。我再次引《詩經》〈衛風.淇奧〉來祝頌
瞻彼淇奧,綠竹猗猗。
有匪君子,如切如磋,如琢如磨。 瑟兮僴兮,赫兮烜兮。
有匪君子,終不可諼兮。

【註】這篇文章不是學術論文,因此不在文末加注參考文獻;但已直接在文中資料引用處以超連結標明,方便讀者點閱原始文章。

1. PDF]
四十有成- 見證行政院研考會的成就與傳承
檔案類型: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - HTML 版行政院研考會四十有成,我們深覺與有. 榮焉。我再次引《詩經》〈衛風.淇奧〉來. 祝頌. 四十有成-見證行政院研考會的成就與傳承. 瞻彼淇奧,綠竹猗猗。 ...bimn.rdec.gov.tw/lib/lib02/bimn/269/269-5.pdf - 類似網頁 -
[PDF]
主任委員
檔案類型: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - HTML 版榮的「有方向感的優質團隊:在研考會的兩年燦爛時光」、蔣前副主任委員家興. 的「四十有成—見證行政院研考會的成就與傳承」等。此外,本期亦刊載黃前主 ...bimn.rdec.gov.tw/lib/lib02/bimn/269/editor.pdf - 類似網頁 -bimn.rdec.gov.tw 的其它相關資訊 »

趕在伯勞之前


趕在伯勞之前
【聯合報╱馮傑】
2008.08.15 03:37 am
本文來源 http://udn.com/news/READING/X5/4472597.shtml
伯勞是一種鄉村之鳥,白。
櫻桃是一種櫻桃樹,紅。
我家的一池院子的面孔,綠。
今年一樹櫻桃開放,一簇簇的花朵爭著,搶著。在註冊著花香。後來風雨交加,等到最後煙消雲散時,一查,滿滿一樹的花,結果的只有僅僅二十顆櫻桃。
小兒子對櫻桃給予了希望,上學、放學時,都要在下面看一眼櫻桃,才放心。
櫻桃開始從綠到黃。從黃到紅。
一天早上,兒子在屋裡驚叫,讓我快些出去。原來,他看到有兩隻伯勞鳥在啄食櫻桃。我家有一冊厚厚鳥譜,他天天翻看,瞭若指掌,自然認識伯勞。
等我出來時,為時已晚,櫻桃早已被伯勞啄去五顆。伯勞勤勞,比上早自習的兒子起得更早,天不亮時鳥便已開始早餐。伯勞的叫聲清亮,水洗過一般。伯勞在我院裡穿梭了數日。
剩下十五顆依在。
兒子的想法更絕,便在樹下拴上一條狗,目的是用於嚇鳥。這有點像租賃了一位員警。但兩天以後,很快便又辭去了員警,因為這條狗不老實,老是牽著一副鐵鍊子在櫻桃樹下轉來轉去,像被告一樣焦急不安。這樣,又震落掉兩顆欲紅的櫻桃。
兒子有法,改在櫻桃樹上高掛幾個紅紅的大塑膠袋,風一颳,便呼呼啦啦地轉動,響著,像樹上的稻草人。果然有效。伯勞敬而遠之。
到了收穫時節,還有十顆櫻桃文風不動。
有一天,我下班回家,看到小兒子坐在樹下,正用一方涼毛巾敷腿,一問,原來是在摘櫻桃時,凳子倒了,劃破了小腿肚子。兒子在一邊盤算著今年的櫻桃帳。
枝頭上,剩下櫻桃核在風中簌簌響著。單聽那聲音,曬乾的櫻桃核在咬牙切齒。
二十顆櫻桃只剩下了十顆。
以上是2005年記事之一,小兒子曾寫過作文予以記載。
我知道,這一年世界發生了許多大事,美國,伊拉克,聯合國,核檢查。但對孩子們來說,二十顆櫻桃未能趕在伯勞之前平安地走下櫻桃樹,這才是更大的事。
【2008/08/15 聯合報】@ http://udn.com/

英國發明人柏內茲里 WWW inventor thinks web still an infant

英國發明人柏內茲里
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May 2, 2008 - 2:45 AM | Related Entries - Computing | Comments (0)
WWW inventor thinks web still an infant
What's exciting is that people are building new social systems, new systems of review, new systems of governance hope is that those will produce... new ways of working together effectively and fairly which we can use globally to manage ourselves as a planet. The comments came on the anniversary of the announcement by CERN on April 30, 1993 that, the World Wide Web could be used by everyone, after Berners-Lee and a colleague persuaded their bosses to provide the program code for free. The web -- of which the abbreviation www forms the start of all online addresses -- is now the ubiquitous network via which information is shared on the Internet. An estimated 165 million websites now exist, the BBC reported. Robert Cailliau, who worked with Berners-Lee to open up the web, stressed that not all the bosses at CERN were in favour of making the web universally accessible. Competing technologies -- such as Gopher developed at the University of Minnesota in the United States -- were also offering a way of connecting documents on the Internet, he said. If they had put a price on it like the University of Minnesota had done with Gopher then it would not have expanded into what it is now.

The World Wide Web is still only in its infancy its British inventor Tim Berners-Lee seen here in 2001 said on the 15th anniversary of the webs effective launch. The World Wide Web is still only in its infancy, its British inventor Tim Berners-Lee says "We would have had some sort of market share alongside services like AOL and Compuserve, but we would not have flattened the world." Cheers to that thought mate, you really changed the world.
ShareThisMay 2, 2008 - 2:45 AM | Related Entries - Computing | Comments (0)

全球變暖



全球變暖
維基百科,自由的百科全書http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E6%9A%96%E5%8C%96
(重定向自全球暖化)
跳转到: 导航, 搜尋
TA▼▲
為了閱讀方便,本文使用標題手工轉換
·轉換標題為:中国大陆:全球变暖;台灣:全球暖化;香港:全球暖化
·實際標題為:全球变暖;當前顯示為:全球暖化
為了閱讀方便,本文使用全文手工轉換。轉換內容:
1.中国大陆:全球变暖;台灣:全球暖化;香港:全球暖化 當前用字模式下顯示為→全球暖化
2.中国大陆:弗吉尼亚;台灣:維吉尼亞;香港:維珍尼亞 當前用字模式下顯示為→維吉尼亞
顯示↓關閉↑附加說明(對轉換結果有疑問時)
用詞轉換(繁簡轉換)是中文維基的一項自動轉換,目的是以電腦程式適應不同用字模式的差異。標題轉換和全文轉換都是對該技術的手動轉換的應用。
由於技術所限,用詞轉換有時會不穩定,在剛增加標題轉換和全文轉換時,由於緩存原因不一定馬上顯示轉換後的正確結果。你可以嘗試單擊這裡進行強制刷新


1958年莫勞島二氧化碳含量變化
全球暖化指的是在一段時間中,地球大氣海洋溫度上升的現象,主要是指人為因素造成的溫度上升,原因很可能是由於溫室氣體排放過多造成的。
20世紀,全球平均接近地面的大氣層溫度上升了攝氏0.6度。普遍來說,科學界認為過去五十年可觀察的氣候改變很可能是由人類活動所推動。
二氧化碳和其他溫室氣體的含量不斷增加,正是全球變暖的人為因素中主要部分。燃燒化石燃料、清理林木和耕作等等都增強了溫室效應。第一次懷疑溫室效應會發生的觀測是瑞典化學家阿累尼烏斯1897年所做的。雖然當時沒有引發公眾討論,但是事隔90年,終於成了公眾關注的問題。
美國加利福尼亞大學科學家太平洋中央夏威夷茂納羅亞峰上設立4個7高和一個27米高的採樣塔,每小時採樣4次,分析二氧化碳的變化情況。(如右圖)[1][2]
目前全球平均溫度的變化,幾乎和二氧化碳含量的變化是同步上升的,從工業革命開始,二氧化碳的含量急劇增加,雖然植物光合作用吸收了很大一部分二氧化碳,海洋也溶解一部分二氧化碳並固定成碳酸鈣,但空氣中二氧化碳的含量還是逐步增加。根據美國維吉尼亞大學英國東安格裡亞大學聯合研究的結果,在進入20世紀後半葉,全球溫度上升的趨勢非常明顯,溫度變化情況見下圖。
全球性的溫度增量可能反過來導致其它方面的變動,包括海平面上升和降雨量及降雪量在數額上和樣式上的變化。這些變動也許促使極端天氣事件更強更頻繁,譬如洪水旱災熱浪颶風龍捲風。除此之外,還有其它後果,包括更高或更低的農產量、冰河撤退、夏天時河流流量減少、物種消失及疾病肆虐。預計全球變暖所因致事件的數量和強度; 但是很難把這些特殊事件連接到全球變暖。雖然很多研究集中在2100年或之前的時間,但是預期全球變暖、海平面上升會在往後的日子仍然繼續。因為二氧化碳在大氣中有50年到200年的壽命[3]。但是還是有不少氣候研究顯示為人類的行動在最近全球變暖中其實沒有扮演重要角色。可是, 更多人關心氣候變化在將來會是多少,而且對於應付預言後果的政策應該如何實施,正在展開一場熱烈的政治爭鬥和公開辯論。這些政策討論重點是應該減少還是扭轉未來的暖化及怎麼應付預計的後果。
目錄
[隐藏]
1 命名法則
2 歷史上的全球變暖
3 成因
3.1 大氣層中的溫室氣體
3.2 另外一些理論
3.2.1 太陽變化理論
4 造成的影響
5 對全球暖化的其他看法(各看法互相獨立)
6 參考文獻
7 參見
8 相關電影
9 外部連結
9.1 科學
9.2 兩極監察
9.3 其他
//
[編輯] 命名法則
全球變暖是比氣候改變更明確的名稱。原則上,「全球變暖」一詞對成因持中立觀點,但是根據大眾的用法,「全球變暖」意味著人類的影響。可是,聯合國氣候變化框架公約使用「氣候改變」代表人為因素導致的改變,「氣候變化」代表其他東西導致的改變。其他組織則使用「人為的氣候改變」(anthropogenic climate change)代表人為因素導致的改變。
[編輯] 歷史上的全球變暖
主條目:過去1000年的溫度記錄


根據不同的重組所展示過去2000年的平均地表溫度。每十年找一個平均值。特別顯示2004年的溫度來作參考。
根據儀器記錄,相對於1860年至1900年期間,全球陸地與海洋溫度上升了攝氏0.75度。自1979年,陸地溫度上升速度比海洋溫度快一倍(陸地溫度上升了攝氏0.25度,而海洋溫度上升了攝氏0.13度)。根據衛星溫度探測,對流層的溫度每十年上升攝氏0.12度至0.22度。在1850年前的一兩千年,雖然曾經出現中世紀溫暖時期小冰河時期,但是大眾相信全球溫度是相對穩定的。
根據美國國家航空暨太空總署戈達德太空研究所的研究報告估計,自1800年代有測量儀器廣泛地應用開始,2005年是最溫暖的年份,比1998年的記錄高了攝氏百分之幾度。 世界氣象組織英國氣候研究單位也有類似的估計,曾經預計2005年是僅次於1998年第二溫暖的年份。[4] [5]
在人類近代歷史才有一些溫度記錄。這些記錄都來自不同的地方,精確度和可靠性都不盡相同。在1860年才有類似全球溫度儀器記錄,相信當年的記錄很少受到城市熱島效應的影響。從最近的千禧年內的多方記錄所展示的長遠展望,在過去1000年的溫度記錄中可以看到有關的討論及其中的差異。最近50年的氣候轉變的過程是十分清晰,全賴詳細的溫度記錄。到了1979年人類更開始利用衛星溫度測量來量度對流層的溫度。
在2000年後,各地的高溫記錄經常被打破。譬如:2003年8月11日,瑞士格羅諾鎮錄得攝氏41.5度,破139年來的記錄。同年,8月10日,英國倫敦的溫度達到攝氏38.1,破了1990年的記錄。同期,巴黎南部晚上測得最低溫度為攝氏25.5度,破了1873年以來的記錄。8月7日夜間,德國也打破了百年最高氣溫記錄。在2003年夏天,台北上海杭州武漢福州都破了當地高溫記錄[6][7],而中國浙江省更快速地屢破高溫記錄,67個氣象站中40個都刷新記錄。[8]2004年7月,廣州的罕見高溫打破了五十三年來的記錄。[9]2005年7月,美國有兩百個城市都創下歷史性高溫記錄。[10]2006年8月16日,重慶最高氣溫高達43度。[11]台灣宜蘭在2006年7月8日溫度高達38.8度,破了1997年的記錄。[12]2006年11月11日是香港整個十一月最熱的一日,最高氣溫高達29.2度,比1961年至1990年的平均最高溫26.1度還要高。[13]
[編輯] 成因
主條目:近代氣候轉變的成因氣候轉變的科學觀點


過去40萬年的二氧化碳含量與自工業革命的急速飆升;地球軌道的週期性改變(又稱為米蘭柯維奇旋迴)被相信是十萬年的冰河時期循環的背後推動者。
氣候系統的改變來自自然或內部運作及對外來力量的改變作出的反應。這些外來力量包括了人為與非人為因素,譬如太陽活動火山活動溫室氣體。多名氣候學家同意地球近年來已經變暖。近代氣候轉變的成因仍然是活躍的研究範疇,但是科學界的共識指出溫室氣體是全球變暖的主因。可是,科學界外仍然對此結論有爭議
在地球大氣層排放二氧化碳甲烷,而其他情況不變下,會促使地面升溫,溫室氣體產生天然的溫室效應。如果沒有它,地球溫度會比現在低攝氏30度,使地球不適合人類居住。因此,在支持與反對這套變暖理論之間爭辯是不正確的,反而應該則重於大氣層中二氧化碳甲烷含量的增加所產生的最終效果,什麼時候應該促進或什麼時候才同意使之緩和。
舉一個重要的回饋過程的例子,就是冰反照率回饋。大氣層中增加二氧化碳暖化了地球表面,導致兩極冰塊溶解。陸地與開放水域便佔據更多的地方。兩者比冰的反射還要少,所以吸收了更多太陽輻射。這樣使變暖加劇,到頭來促使更多冰塊溶化,循環不斷持續。
因為地球的熱力慣性與對其他間接效應的緩慢反應,地球現今的氣候在不斷增加的溫室氣體下變得不平衡。氣候行為研究指出,縱使溫室氣體維持現今的水準,全球平均溫度可能仍然會上升攝氏0.5至1度。
[編輯] 大氣層中的溫室氣體


在過去65萬年,大氣層二氧化碳與全球溫度的圖表


1980年至2003年,全球主要溫室氣體的趨勢圖
溫室氣體對於太陽的短波輻射來說是透明的。可是,它們卻吸收了來自地球發放的(黑體輻射)部份長波的紅外線輻射。這樣使地球難以降溫。它們能暖化地球多少是以全球暖化勢能作指標。
大氣層中二氧化碳及甲烷的濃度自1750年比前工業化水平(280百萬分率)分別上升了31%與149%。而現在的水平已經高於380百萬分率。從冰芯中提取可靠的數據指出,與過去65萬年的作比較,這是個明顯的飆升。從一些非直接的地質學證據,有理由相信過去4千萬年的二氧化碳含量比較高。在過去的二十年中,大約四分之三的人為的二氧化碳排放都是燃燒化石燃料。其他的人為排放都是土地使用方面,特別是砍伐森林[14]
1958年夏威夷大島海拔約3400公尺的毛納洛峰上對二氧化碳混合比率展開了最漫長的連續的儀器測量。從此以後,人們發現每年的測量結果不斷攀升,如基林曲線(Keeling Curve)顯示,數值由當初的315百萬分率上升至2006年超過了380百萬分率,升幅大約是21%。[15][16]結果顯示二氧化碳含量在每個月出現輕微季節性變動而整體上全年是不斷上升。
甲烷天然氣的主要組成部分,大部分由生物生產和從天然氣管道和其它基礎設施洩漏出來。一些甲烷的生物來源是自然的,譬如白蟻。可是其他來源則是由人類農業活動增加而帶動的,例如稻米的耕種。[17]最近的證據顯示,森林也許是甲烷的來源[18][19]。如果屬實,這會是對天然溫室效應的額外貢獻,而不是人為溫室效應的。[20]
雖然實際的趨勢軌線視乎不確定的經濟、社會、科技及自然發展,預期未來的二氧化碳水平將因為使用化石燃料而持續攀升。政府間氣候變化委員會的《排放情況的特殊報告》羅列出很多不同的二氧化碳情況,在2100年可以達致由541至970百萬分率的水平。[21]如果煤與焦油被廣泛地採用,現時的化石燃料儲備是有能力實現這個水平並且在2100年後繼續排放。


於2000年人為排放的溫室氣體的各個組成部分
全球的主要人為排放的溫室氣體是來自燃燒燃料。餘下的大部分來自「短暫的燃料」(生產與運送中耗用的燃料)、工業及農業生產中的排放。在1990年,他們的比重分別是5.8%、5.2%和3.3%。當前的數據都可以作比較。[22]大約17%來自發電時所耗用的燃料。很少來自大自然與人為生物來源,大約只有6.3%來自農業所產生的甲烷氧化亞氮
正迴饋效果會導致更多溫室氣體的來源。譬如從西伯利亞永久凍土中的泥煤田釋放的甲烷可能多達7百億噸。 [23]注意人類排放的污染物如硫酸鹽氣溶膠有冷卻的作用。雖然被干擾的自然循環可能導致二十世紀中期的溫度記錄中所見的高原,但那些人類排放的污染物在某個程度上也引致同樣的溫度記錄[24]
[編輯] 另外一些理論
人類曾企圖測量關於「在過去50年觀察得到的大部分暖化都是由人類活動所致的」的科學公眾輿論程度。 [25] 在科學雜誌中,加州聖迭戈大學的歷史學教授納奧秘·奧勒斯克斯科學資訊機構中的928份科學文獻的摘要中尋找全球氣候改變(global climate change)。他得出結論,當中75%明示或暗示接受了這個公眾輿論的觀點。[26][27]可是,奧勒斯克斯教授並沒有表示幾多摘要指出人類導致的暖化效果。
除了這個公眾輿論外,還有其他的假說嘗試解釋全部或部分的全球溫度升高的原因。某些假說如下:
· 全球溫度升高仍然屬於自然溫度變化的範圍之內。
· 全球溫度升高是小冰河時期的來臨。
· 全球溫度升高的原因是太陽輻射的變化及雲層覆蓋的調節效果。[28]
· 全球溫度升高正反映了城市熱島效應。因為很多讀數都在人口稠密或正在擴張的地區。[29]
[編輯] 太陽變化理論


過去30年的太陽輻射的變化圖
政府間氣候變化專門委員會的第三份評估報告所闡述的模型研究發現最近40至50年的氣候改變並不需要太陽發光度的變動。[30]這些研究發現火山及太陽活動只能影響1950年前的溫度改變的一半,但這種自然力量最近已經被抵消。[31]特別是,自1750年的溫室氣體所推動的氣候改變比同期增加的太陽活動所推動的高出八倍。[32]
有些研究(Lean等人,2002年;Wang等人,2005年)認為前工業時期的太陽發光度比第三份評估報告中所提及的復原紀錄(例如:Hoyt和Schatten,1993年;Lean,2000年)還少三四倍。其他研究人員[33]相信太陽發光度對全球變暖的影響被低估了。他們估計太陽活動促使近來溫室效應的16%或36%。其它人[34]則建議雲層和其他過程的回饋加劇了太陽活動的變動所帶來的影響。如果是真的,太陽活動的變動真的被低估了。從普遍的科學理解來說,太陽發光度變動對歷史上的氣候改變貢獻是十分小[6]
現在的太陽活動水準是歷史性高。科學家Sami Solanki博士等人認為過去60年至70年的太陽活動是八千年來的高峰期。[35]Muscheler等人則認為過去幾千年都曾經出現類似的高峰期。[36]Solanki博士根據他們的分析斷定了太陽活動在未來的50年會降低的機會率大約是92%。再者,美國杜克大學的研究者在2005年發現過去二十年的改變中的10%至30%可能來自增加的太陽輸出。[37]回顧了現有的文獻,Foukal等人斷定自從1970年代中期太陽輸出的變化很難加劇全球變暖並且沒有證據顯示太陽發光度在這個時期有所增加。[38][39]
[編輯] 造成的影響
主條目:全球暖化的效應


一千年內北半球溫度變化趨勢(1000年-1950年每50年一刻度,1950-2000每10年一刻度)
1. 由於海洋溫度增加,南極北極冰川會加速融化,導致海平面上升,會淹沒沿海低海拔地區,例如大洋洲島國圖瓦魯已被水淹沒。全世界有3/4的人口居住在離海岸線不足500公里的地方,陸地面積縮小會極大地影響人類居住環境,甚至可能導致戰爭
2. 由於海洋溫度增加,水蒸發加快,大量水氣被輸送進入大氣,會導致局部地區短時間內降雨量突然升高,這樣暴雨天氣就會導致水災山體滑坡泥石流等更加頻繁的發生,位於河流沿岸的城市和位於河流下游的廣大地區因此受到洪水的威脅,水災面積因為短時的強降水而迅速擴大,水土流失問題也比過去更加嚴峻。
3. 由於大氣溫度升高,導致熱帶傳染病向高緯擴散,目前已有熱帶傳染病擴散的跡象。而過去在低溫下難以存活的病毒隨著冬季溫度上升,有全年活動的可能,最近一段時間的監控發現,過去已經得到控制的疾病如結核病等有再度爆發的可能。
4. 由於大氣溫度升高,令蒸發量上升,在以往乾旱少雨的地區面臨更加嚴峻的考驗,而不正確的耕作方法很有可能讓以前植被覆蓋就不好的半乾旱地區失去保護成為半沙化地區,從而導致內陸地區沙漠化加速,沙漠有擴大的危險(實際上沙漠化問題已經困擾著東亞和中亞國家,在撒哈拉邊界地區更是情況堪憂)。
5. 雖然由於溫度升高,有部分動植物會加快繁殖,而如果食物鏈中的上層和頂層生物如果不作出相應變動就會嚴重危機到種群的繁殖和發展,整個生物多樣性(Biodiversity)會受到威脅,許多物種會加速滅絕的步伐。
6. 由於兩極冰山崩塌,北歐南美近極地的地方溫度會迅速下降,會嚴重影響當地生態系統,造成不可逆的變化。
全球暖化可能極大地影響人類生存環境,人類應該起碼將自己對全球暖化的貢獻降到最低程度,盡量減緩全球暖化的趨勢。

[編輯] 對全球暖化的其他看法(各看法互相獨立)
1. 現在的時代是地質史上相對比較寒冷的時代,地質史上曾有的地球氣溫達攝氏80多度[來源請求],恰是生物繁盛的時代,全球暖化有助於生態系統的更加穩定。
2. 全球暖化將使全球熱量上升,使得農作物的播種範圍擴大,再加上空氣中二氧化碳濃度增高,空氣中的水氣增加,有利於降水,所有這些因素,有利於農業的發展。
3. 否認全球暖化的:近幾十年來,全球平均氣溫波動均在0.6攝氏度以內。這麼小的氣溫變率是正常現象。
4. 全球暖化起因於城市熱島效應,由於城市的氣溫上升,位於都市的氣溫觀測當然會上升,因此高估了實際上的全球溫度上升。
5. 認為全球暖化不是二氧化碳成因的,二氧化碳在大氣中的溫室效應有待進一步評估, 因為水氣才使主要的溫室氣體(60~70%),但是二氧化碳只有26%。
6. 與其採用限制二氧化碳排放的方法來控制全球暖化,還不如利用其他方法來解決全球暖化造成的問題;這樣才能有效的利用資源。
[編輯] 參考文獻
1. (英文)Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere - first signs of increase
2. 茂納羅亞峰上採集的數據
3. 美國環保局:全球變暖潛力與大氣中壽命
4. 美國國家航空暨太空總署戈達德太空研究所的研究報告全球溫度趨勢
5. 2005年的溫度
6. 天氣在線:入夏以來中國和歐洲的高溫記錄
7. [http://unn.people.com.cn/BIG5/22220/28976/28982/1991868.html 人民網:武漢又創高溫記錄 昨日百年最熱一天]
8. 湖南新聞網:浙江高溫記錄不斷刷新 成為全國最熱地區之一
9. 大紀元:廣州出現五十三年來罕見高溫
10. 美國兩百個城市單日高溫創歷史記錄
11. 新華網:重慶創高溫記錄 南方各地暑熱難耐
12. 宜蘭出現焚風 高溫破入夏記錄:38.8度
13. 都市日報:11月平均溫度 創120年高溫紀錄
14. 2001年氣候改變的科學基礎
15. 地球系統研究實驗室:環球監察科
16. 地球系統研究實驗室:環球監察科:消息公告
17. 聯合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會:2001年的科學數據
18. 真實氣候
19. BBC新聞:發現植物也釋放甲烷
20. Ealert
21. [1]
22. 溫室氣體資料庫
23. 英國衛報:全球變暖命中「打翻點」
24. http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/462.htm
25. http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/007.htm
26. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=80
27. 科學雜誌: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
28. 丹麥國家太空中心
29. ReasonOnline:Stars in Her Eyes
30. 政府間氣候變化專門委員會的第三份評估報告:第11章第2節
31. 政府間氣候變化專門委員會的第三份評估報告:第11章第4節
32. 政府間氣候變化專門委員會的第三份評估報告:第6章第13節
33. 彼得·A·史托等人在2003年的研究[2]
34. Marsh and Svensmark 2000 [3]
35. 產業溫室氣體排放管理及輔導計畫網站:溫室氣體減量電子報-第7期
36. [4]
37. 杜克大學物理學家報告
38. 《自然》雜誌9月18日內容精選
39. [5]
[編輯] 參見
· 全球暖化的效應
· 大氣層
· 政府間氣候變化專門委員會
· 北極氣候影響評估報告
[編輯] 相關電影
· 明天過後
· 不願面對的真相
· 未來水世界
· 日本沉沒
[編輯] 外部連結
[編輯] 科學
· 1995年諾貝爾化學獎獲得者駱嵐教授訪問:全球變暖和臭氧耗盡
· 莫勞島二氧化碳含量變化
· 長春社
· 氣候轉變
· 海洋及氣候改變協會的全球變暖資訊, 伍茲霍爾海洋研究院 (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
· 政府間氣候變化專門委員會(IPCC)
o 政府間氣候變化專門委員會第三個評估報告 於2001年刊登
o 政府間氣候變化專門委員會第二工作組(衝擊、適應和弱點)氣候改變2001
o 政府間氣候變化專門委員會報告摘要 - GreenFacts編輯
· 美國國家航空暨太空總署全球水文學和氣候中心
· 夏威夷Mauna Loa Observatory - 最近二氧化碳含量的測量與數據
· 聯合國環保計劃中有關全球變暖的地圖
· 國家海洋與大氣管理局全球變暖的答客問
· 真實氣候 - 一群氣候科學家的網誌
· 國家大氣層研究中心 - 氣候改變研究總覽
· 德國波茨坦氣候影響研究所
· 發現全球變暖 發現過程的詳盡介紹與歷史
· 氣候改變的介紹:氣象學家的筆記 (世界氣象組織) (PDF)
· Pew研究中心
· 國家海洋與大氣管理局地球系統實驗室全球監測組
· 全球變暖, 美國環境保護署
· 美國氣候改變科學計劃的最後報告
· 西伯利亞溶解中的湖水釋放了溫室氣體
· 丹麥國家太空中心:天空實驗
· 全球變暖網站
· 氣候科學監測
[編輯] 兩極監察
· 永久凍土如何快速改變?這些改變又有什麼衝擊?
· NOAA
· 俄羅斯永久凍土的溶解可能加速了全球變暖[7]
[編輯] 其他
· 專門委員會報告:關於「曲棍球球棍」重建全球性氣候
· 氣候方舟 - 提供新聞及分析的氣候改變及全球變暖的入門網站
· Science and Technology Librarianship: Global Warming and Climate Change Science — Extensive commented list of Internet resources — Science and Technology Sources on the Internet.
· Union of Concerned Scientists Global Warming page
· BBC: Global warming risk 'much higher'
· Watch and read 'Tipping Point', Australian science documentary about effects of global warming on rare, common, and endangered wildlife
· Summary by "Physicians and Scientists for Responsible Application of Science and Technology"
· A report by the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a pro-business group of global warming skeptics
· Newest reports on US EPA website
· An optimistic outlook on Global Warming from PBNV.com Apr 25, 2006
· The Discovery of Global Warming from historian Spencer Weart, Director of the Center for History of Physics of the American Institute of Physics (AIP).
· IPS Inter Press Service - Independent news on global warming and its consequences.
Template:UATemplate:UATemplate:UAzh:全球暖化
取自"http://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E5%8F%98%E6%9A%96&variant=zh-tw"
2個分類: 地球科學 | 氣候變化
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Global Warming
Frequently Asked Questions
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html


Please note that this page is in the process of being updated with new information from the Fourth IPCC Assessment and other recent work. Please check back frequently for changes.

· Introduction
· What is the greenhouse effect, and is it affecting our climate?
· Are greenhouse gases increasing?
· Is the climate warming?
· Are El Niños related to Global Warming?
· Is the hydrological cycle (evaporation and precipitation) changing?
· Is the atmospheric/oceanic circulation changing?
· Is the climate becoming more variable or extreme?
· How important are these changes in a longer-term context?
· Is sea level rising?
· Can the observed changes be explained by natural variability?
· What about the future?
· Additional Information
http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/f101.asp
Global Warming Basics What it is, how it's caused, and what needs to be done to stop it. [En Español]
What causes global warming?
Is the earth really getting hotter?
Are warmer temperatures causing bad things to happen?
Is global warming making hurricanes worse?
Is there really cause for serious concern?
Could global warming trigger a sudden catastrophe?
What country is the largest source of global warming pollution?
How can we cut global warming pollution?
Why aren't these technologies more commonplace now?
Do we need new laws requiring industry to cut emissions of global warming pollution?
Is it possible to cut power plant pollution and still have enough electricity?
How can we cut car pollution?
What can I do to help fight global warming?
Consequences of Global Warming Unless we act now, our children will inherit a hotter world, dirtier air and water, more severe floods and droughts, and more wildfires [En Español]

(See more Google Earth maps.)









ALASKA HEATS UPWarming temperatures are already having an impact on the people, wildlife and landscape of Alaska. Click on the numbers on this map to see what's happening on the front lines of global warming.
1. Barrow 2. Shismaref 3. Yukon River 4. Wasilla 5. Kenai Peninsula 6. McCall Glacier 7. Fairbanks
The latest scientific data confirm that the earth's climate is rapidly changing. Global temperatures increased by about 1 degree Fahrenheit over the course of the last century, and will likely rise even more rapidly in coming decades. The cause? A thickening layer of carbon dioxide pollution, mostly from power plants and automobiles, that traps heat in the atmosphere.
Scientists say that unless global warming emissions are reduced, average U.S. temperatures could rise another 3 to 9 degrees by the end of the century -- with far-reaching effects. Sea levels will rise, flooding coastal areas. Heat waves will be more frequent and more intense. Droughts and wildfires will occur more often. Disease-carrying mosquitoes will expand their range. And species will be pushed to extinction. As this page shows, many of these changes have already begun.

CLIMATE PATTERN CHANGES
Consequence: warmer temperaturesAverage temperatures will rise, as will the frequency of heat waves.
Warning signs today
Most of the United States has already warmed, in some areas by as much as 4 degrees Fahrenheit. In fact, no state in the lower 48 states experienced below average temperatures in 2002. The last three five-year periods are the three warmest on record.
Many places in North America had their hottest seasons or days on record in the late 1990s.
Since 1980, the earth has experienced 19 of its 20 hottest years on record, with 2005 and 1998 tied for the hottest and 2002 and 2003 coming in second and third.
Consequence: drought and wildfireWarmer temperatures could also increase the probability of drought. Greater evaporation, particularly during summer and fall, could exacerbate drought conditions and increase the risk of wildfires.
Warning signs today
Greater evaporation as a result of global warmingcould increase the risk of wildfires.
The 1999-2002 national drought was one of the three most extensive droughts in the last 40 years.
In 2002, the Western United States experienced its second worst wildfire season in the last 50 years; more than 7 million acres burned. Colorado, Arizona, and Oregon had their worst seasons.
The period from April through June of 1998 was the driest three-month period in 104 years in Florida, Texas, and Louisiana.
Dry conditions produced the worst wildfires in 50 years in Florida in 1998.
April through July of 1999 was the driest four-month stretch in 105 years of record-keeping in New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Rhode Island.
Montana, Colorado, and Kansas experienced severe dust storms in 2002, a product of dry conditions.
September 2001 to February 2002 was the second driest six-month period on record for the Northeast.
Consequence: more intense rainstormsWarmer temperatures increase the energy of the climatic system and lead to more intense rainfall at some times and in some areas.
Warning signs today
National annual precipitation has increased between 5 and 10 percent since the early 20th century, largely the result of heavy downpours in some areas.
Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts each got more than double their normal monthly rainfall in June 1998.
Severe flooding in the Texas, Montana, and North Dakota during the summer of 2002 caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage.

HEALTH EFFECTS
More frequent and more intensive heat waves could result in more heat-related deaths. Photo: Gary Braasch, Chicago, July 1995. See the World View of Global Warming website for more Gary Braasch photos illustrating the consequences of the changing climate.
Consequence: deadly heat waves and the spread of diseaseMore frequent and more intensive heat waves could result in more heat-related deaths. These conditions could also aggravate local air quality problems, already afflicting more than 80 million Americans. Global warming is expected to increase the potential geographic range and virulence of tropical diseases as well.
Warning signs today
In 2003, extreme heat waves caused more than 20,000 deaths in Europe and more than 1500 deaths in India.
More than 250 people died as a result of an intense heat wave that gripped most of the eastern two-thirds of the United States in 1999.
Disease-carrying mosquitoes are spreading as climate shifts allow them to survive in formerly inhospitable areas. Mosquitoes that can carry dengue fever viruses were previously limited to elevations of 3,300 feet but recently appeared at 7,200 feet in the Andes Mountains of Colombia. Malaria has been detected in new higher-elevation areas in Indonesia.

WARMING WATER
Consequence: more powerful and dangerous hurricanesWarmer water in the oceans pumps more energy into tropical storms, making them more intense and potentially more destructive.
Warning signs today
The number of category 4 and 5 storms has greatly increased over the past 35 years, along with ocean temperature.
Consequence: melting glaciers, early ice thawRising global temperatures will speed the melting of glaciers and ice caps, and cause early ice thaw on rivers and lakes.
Warning signs today
At the current rate of retreat, all of the glaciers in Glacier National Park will be gone by 2070.
After existing for many millennia, the northern section of the Larsen B ice shelf in Antarctica -- a section larger than the state of Rhode Island -- collapsed between January and March 2002, disintegrating at a rate that astonished scientists. Since 1995 the ice shelf's area has shrunk by 40 percent.
According to NASA, the polar ice cap is now melting at the alarming rate of nine percent per decade. Arctic ice thickness has decreased 40 percent since the 1960s.
In 82 years of record-keeping, four of the five earliest thaws on Alaska's Tanana River were in the 1990s.
The satellite photo at far left shows the Larson B ice shelf on Jan. 31, 2002. Ice appears as solid white. Moving to the right, in photos taken Feb. 17 and Feb. 23, the ice begins to disintegrate. In the photos at far right, taken Mar. 5 and Mar 7, note water (blue) where solid ice had been, and that a portion of the shelf is drifting away. Photos: National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Consequence: sea-level riseCurrent rates of sea-level rise are expected to increase as a result both of thermal expansion of the oceans and of partial melting of mountain glaciers and the Antarctic and Greenland ice caps. Consequences include loss of coastal wetlands and barrier islands, and a greater risk of flooding in coastal communities. Low-lying areas, such as the coastal region along the Gulf of Mexico and estuaries like the Chesapeake Bay, are especially vulnerable.
Warning signs today
The current pace of sea-level rise is three times the historical rate and appears to be accelerating.
Global sea level has already risen by four to eight inches in the past century. Scientists' best estimate is that sea level will rise by an additional 19 inches by 2100, and perhaps by as much as 37 inches.

ECOSYSTEM DISRUPTION
Warmer temperatures may cause some ecosystems, including alpine meadows in the Rocky Mountains, to disappear.
Consequence: ecosystem shifts and species die-offThe increase in global temperatures is expected to disrupt ecosystems and result in loss of species diversity, as species that cannot adapt die off. The first comprehensive assessment of the extinction risk from global warming found that more than one million species could be committed to extinction by 2050 if global warming pollution is not curtailed. Some ecosystems, including alpine meadows in the Rocky Mountains, as well as tropical montane and mangrove forests, are likely to disappear because new warmer local climates or coastal sea level rise will not support them.
Warning signs today
A recent study published in the prestigious journal Nature found that at least 279 species of plants and animals are already responding to global warming. Species' geographic ranges have shifted toward the poles at an average rate of 4 miles per decade and their spring events have shifted earlier by an average of 2 days per decade.
In Washington's Olympic Mountains, sub-alpine forest has invaded higher elevation alpine meadows. In Bermuda and other places, mangrove forests are being lost.
In areas of California, shoreline sea life is shifting northward, probably in response to warmer ocean and air temperatures.
Over the past 25 years, some penguin populations have shrunk by 33 percent in parts of Antarctica, due to declines in winter sea-ice habitat.
Related NRDC WebpagesArctic on Thin IceGlobal Warming in the Arctic and AntarcticGlobal Warming Threatens FloridaBibliography of Climate Studies
Related WebsitesIntergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeUnion of Concerned Scientists, California's Climate ChoicesNational Climatic Data CenterGlobal Warming: Early Warning Signs MapU.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change
last revised 1.9.06


Take Online Action Now!
Tell Congress to get serious about stopping global warming.
Tell your representative to raise fuel efficiency standards now.
In the News
US Not Prepared for Peril from Global WarmingNRDC Media Center
Multi-State Compact to Fight Global Warming Expands Once AgainNRDC Media Center
More press releases on global warming
Related Stories
Step It UpPhotos and videos from Step It Up rallies around the United States, April 14, 2007.
Legislation to Control Global Warming PollutionThe United States must pass strong legislation to cap emissions of heat-trapping pollutants.
Related Links
Recommended Global Warming Websites
Join the Virtual March
NRDC Annual Report: Global Warming



















Home | About
Contents/Site Map June 2006 version
About this site: TOP OF PAGE Summary of the History of Climate Change Science SEARCH all the essays

Climate data The Modern Temperature Trend Past Cycles: Ice Age Speculations Temperatures from Fossil Shells Rapid Climate Change Uses of Radiocarbon Dating Greenland Ice Drilling (J. Genuth) Influences on climateThe Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect Roger Revelle's Discovery Other Greenhouse Gases Aerosols: Effects of Haze and Cloud Biosphere: How Life Alters ClimateChanging Sun, Changing Climate? Interview with Jack EddyOcean Currents and ClimateTheorySimple Models of Climate Change Chaos in the Atmosphere Venus & Mars General Circulation Models Basic Radiation Calculations Arakawa's Computation Device GCM Family Tree (P. Edwards)
About this site History in Hypertext - Methodology & SourcesList of illustrations Please contribute comments, corrections.Author, Spencer Weart
Social relationshipsThe Public and Climate Change (1) (2) Wintry Doom Ice Sheets and Rising SeasGovernment: The View from Washington Climate Modification Schemes Money for Keeling: Monitoring CO2 Levels International Cooperation Climatology as a Profession
Reflections on the Scientific Process A Personal Note Talking Points (pdf)
Reference/Utilities Timeline of milestones List of external influences Developments after 1988 (links to essays)BIBLIOGRAPHY by author Bibliography by yearDOWNLOAD entire site (Zip file) PDF files (to download and print)Order on CD-ROM
*SEARCH all the essays *LINKS to basic and current information
For search engines: Abrupt Aerosol Biota Government GCM International Oceans Public Public2 Rapid Abrupt
This is mounted on the Web site of the Center for History of Physics of the American Institute of Physics.Discovery of Global Warming site created by Spencer Weart with support from the American Institute of Physics, the National Science Foundation and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. Copyright © 2003-2006 Spencer Weart and the American Institute of Physics.Index terms: climate change, global warming, greenhouse effect, temperature change, history, science, geophysics, meteorology, computer models, aerosols, ice. Book cover photo by Frank Cezus © Getty Images.
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Global warming
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming
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Global mean surface temperature anomaly 1850 to 2006 relative to 1961–1990


Mean surface temperature anomalies during the period 1995 to 2004 with respect to the average temperatures from 1940 to 1980
Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans in recent decades and its projected continuation.
Global average air temperature near the Earth's surface rose 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.3 ± 0.32 °F) during the past century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes, "most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations,"[1] which leads to warming of the surface and lower atmosphere by increasing the greenhouse effect. Natural phenomena such as solar variation combined with volcanoes have probably had a small warming effect from pre-industrial times to 1950, but a small cooling effect since 1950.[2][3] These basic conclusions have been endorsed by at least 30 scientific societies and academies of science, including all of the national academies of science of the major industrialized countries. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists is the only scientific society that rejects these conclusions.[4][5] A few individual scientists disagree with some of these conclusions as well.[6]
Climate models referenced by the IPCC project that global surface temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) between 1990 and 2100.[1] The range of values reflects the use of differing scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions and results of models with differences in climate sensitivity. Although most studies focus on the period up to 2100, warming and sea level rise are expected to continue for more than a millennium even if greenhouse gas levels are stabilized. [1] This reflects the large heat capacity of the oceans.
An increase in global temperatures can in turn cause other changes, including sea level rise, and changes in the amount and pattern of precipitation resulting in floods and drought[7]. There may also be changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, though it is difficult to connect specific events to global warming. Other effects may include changes in agricultural yields, glacier retreat, reduced summer streamflows, species extinctions and increases in the ranges of disease vectors.
Remaining scientific uncertainties include the exact degree of climate change expected in the future, and how changes will vary from region to region around the globe. There is ongoing political and public debate regarding what, if any, action should be taken to reduce or reverse future warming or to adapt to its expected consequences. Most national governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol aimed at combating greenhouse gas emissions.
Contents
[hide]
1 Terminology
2 Causes
2.1 Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
2.2 Feedbacks
2.3 Solar variation
3 History
3.1 From the present to the dawn of human settlement
3.2 Pre-human climate variations
4 Climate models
5 Attributed and expected effects
5.1 Economics
6 Mitigation and adaptation
7 Issue debate and political processes
8 Related climatic issues
9 See also
10 References
11 Further reading
12 External links
12.1 Scientific
12.2 Educational
12.3 Other
//
Terminology
The term "global warming" is a specific example of the broader term climate change, which can also refer to global cooling. In common usage the term refers to recent warming and implies a human influence.[8] The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) uses the term "climate change" for human-caused change, and "climate variability" for other changes.[9] The term "anthropogenic climate change" is sometimes used when focusing on human-induced changes.
Causes


Carbon dioxide during the last 400,000 years and (inset above) the rapid rise since the Industrial Revolution; changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun, known as Milankovitch cycles, are believed to be the pacemaker of the 100,000 year ice age cycle.
Main articles: Attribution of recent climate change and scientific opinion on climate change
The climate system varies through natural, internal processes and in response to variations in external forcing factors including solar activity, volcanic emissions, variations in the earth's orbit (orbital forcing) and greenhouse gases. The detailed causes of the recent warming remain an active field of research, but the scientific consensus [10] identifies increased levels of greenhouse gases due to human activity as the main influence. This attribution is clearest for the most recent 50 years, for which the most detailed data are available. Contrasting with the scientific consensus, other hypotheses have been proposed to explain most of the observed increase in global temperatures. One such hypothesis is that the warming is caused by natural fluctuations in the climate or that warming is mainly a result of variations in solar radiation. [11]
None of the effects of forcing are instantaneous. Due to the thermal inertia of the Earth's oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects, the Earth's current climate is not in equilibrium with the forcing imposed. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at present day levels, a further warming of about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) would still occur. [12]
Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
Main article: Greenhouse effect


Recent increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). The monthly CO2 measurements display small seasonal oscillations in an overall yearly uptrend; each year's maximum is reached during the northern hemisphere's late spring, and declines during the northern hemisphere growing season as plants remove some CO2 from the atmosphere.
The greenhouse effect was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896. It is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by atmospheric gases warms a planet's atmosphere and surface.
Greenhouse gases create a natural greenhouse effect, without which mean temperatures on Earth would be an estimated 30 °C (54 °F) lower so that Earth would be uninhabitable.[13] Thus scientists do not "believe in" or "oppose" the greenhouse effect as such; rather, the debate concerns the net effect of the addition of greenhouse gases, while allowing for associated positive and negative feedback mechanisms.
On Earth, the major natural greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36–70% of the greenhouse effect (not including clouds); carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9–26%; methane (CH4), which causes 4–9%; and ozone, which causes 3–7%. Some other naturally occurring gases contribute very small fractions of the greenhouse effect; one of these, nitrous oxide (N2O), is increasing in concentration owing to human activity such as agriculture. The atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CH4 have increased by 31% and 149% respectively above pre-industrial levels since 1750. These levels are considerably higher than at any time during the last 650,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores. From less direct geological evidence it is believed that CO2 values this high were last attained 20 million years ago.[14] "About three-quarters of the anthropogenic [man-made] emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere during the past 20 years are due to fossil fuel burning. The rest of the anthropogenic emissions are predominantly due to land-use change, especially deforestation."[15]
The present atmospheric concentration of CO2 is about 383 parts per million (ppm) by volume.[16] Future CO2 levels are expected to rise due to ongoing burning of fossil fuels and land-use change. The rate of rise will depend on uncertain economic, sociological, technological, natural developments, but may be ultimately limited by the availability of fossil fuels. The IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios gives a wide range of future CO2 scenarios, ranging from 541 to 970 ppm by the year 2100.[17] Fossil fuel reserves are sufficient to reach this level and continue emissions past 2100, if coal, tar sands or methane clathrates are extensively used.[18]
Positive feedback effects such as the expected release of CH4 from the melting of permafrost peat bogs in Siberia (possibly up to 70,000 million tonnes) may lead to significant additional sources of greenhouse gas emissions[19] not included in climate models cited by the IPCC.[1]
Feedbacks
Main article: Effects of global warming#Further global warming (positive feedback)
The effects of forcing agents on the climate are complicated by various feedback processes.
One of the most pronounced feedback effects relates to the evaporation of water. CO2 injected into the atmosphere causes a warming of the atmosphere and the earth's surface. The warming causes more water to be evaporated into the atmosphere. Since water vapor itself acts as a greenhouse gas, this causes still more warming; the warming causes more water vapor to be evaporated, and so forth until a new dynamic equilibrium concentration of water vapor is reached at a slight increase in humidity and with a much larger greenhouse effect than that due to CO2 alone.[20] This feedback effect can only be reversed slowly as CO2 has a long average atmospheric lifetime.
Feedback effects due to clouds are an area of ongoing research and debate. Seen from below, clouds emit infrared radiation back to the surface, and so exert a warming effect. Seen from above, the same clouds reflect sunlight and emit infrared radiation to space, and so exert a cooling effect. Increased global water vapor concentration may or may not cause an increase in global average cloud cover. The net effect of clouds thus has not been well modeled, however, cloud feedback is second only to water vapor feedback and is positive in all the models that contributed to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.[20]
Another important feedback process is ice-albedo feedback.[21] The increased CO2 in the atmosphere warms the Earth's surface and leads to melting of ice near the poles. As the ice melts, land or open water takes its place. Both land and open water are on average less reflective than ice, and thus absorb more solar radiation. This causes more warming, which in turn causes more melting, and this cycle continues.
Positive feedback due to release of CO2 and CH4 from thawing permafrost is an additional mechanism contributing to warming. Possible positive feedback due to CH4 release from melting seabed ices is a further mechanism to be considered.
The ocean's ability to sequester carbon is expected to decline as it warms, because the resulting low nutrient levels of the mesopelagic zone limits the growth of diatoms in favour of smaller phytoplankton that are poorer biological pumps of carbon.[22]
Solar variation


Solar variation over the last 30 years.
Main article: Solar variation
Variations in solar output, possibly amplified by cloud feedbacks, may have contributed to recent warming.[23] A difference between this mechanism and greenhouse warming is that an increase in solar activity should produce a warming of the stratosphere while greenhouse warming should produce a cooling of the stratosphere. Reduction of stratospheric ozone also has a cooling influence but substantial ozone depletion did not occur until the late 1970s. Cooling in the lower stratosphere has been observed since at least 1960.[24] Thus, solar activity alone is not the main contributor to recent warming.
Phenomena such as solar variation combined with volcanoes have probably had a warming effect from pre-industrial times to 1950, but a cooling effect since 1950.[1] However, some research has suggested that the Sun's contribution may have been underestimated. Two researchers at Duke University have estimated that the Sun may have contributed about 40–50% of the global surface temperature warming over the period 1900–2000, and about 25–35% between 1980 and 2000.[25] Stott and coauthors suggest that climate models overestimate the relative effect of greenhouse gases compared to solar forcing; they also suggest that the cooling effects of volcanic dust and sulfate aerosols have been underestimated.[26] Nevertheless, they conclude that even with an enhanced climate sensitivity to solar forcing, most of the warming during the latest decades is attributable to the increases in greenhouse gases.
History


Curves of reconstructed temperature at two locations in Antarctica and a global record of variations in glacial ice volume. Today's date is on the left side of the graph.
Main article: Temperature record
From the present to the dawn of human settlement
Global temperatures on both land and sea have increased by 0.75 °C (1.4 °F) relative to the period 1860–1900, according to the instrumental temperature record. This measured temperature increase is not significantly affected by the urban heat island. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 °C per decade).[27] Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased between 0.12 and 0.22 °C (0.22 and 0.4 °F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. Temperature is believed to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, with possibly regional fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age.
Based on estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2005 was the warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became available in the late 1800s, exceeding the previous record set in 1998 by a few hundredths of a degree.[28] Estimates prepared by the World Meteorological Organization and the Climatic Research Unit concluded that 2005 was the second warmest year, behind 1998.[29][30]
Anthropogenic emissions of other pollutants—notably sulfate aerosols—can exert a cooling effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. This partially accounts for the cooling seen in the temperature record in the middle of the twentieth century,[31] though the cooling may also be due in part to natural variability.
Paleoclimatologist William Ruddiman has argued that human influence on the global climate began around 8,000 years ago with the start of forest clearing to provide land for agriculture and 5,000 years ago with the start of Asian rice irrigation.[32] Ruddiman's interpretation of the historical record, with respect to the methane data, has been disputed.[33]
Pre-human climate variations


Two millennia of mean surface temperatures according to different reconstructions, each smoothed on a decadal scale. The unsmoothed, annual value for 2004 is also plotted for reference.
Further information: Paleoclimatology
See also: Snowball Earth
Earth has experienced warming and cooling many times in the past. The recent Antarctic EPICA ice core spans 800,000 years, including eight glacial cycles timed by orbital variations with interglacial warm periods comparable to present temperatures.[34]
A rapid buildup of greenhouse gases caused warming in the early Jurassic period (about 180 million years ago), with average temperatures rising by 5 °C (9.0 °F). Research by the Open University indicates that the warming caused the rate of rock weathering to increase by 400%. As such weathering locks away carbon in calcite and dolomite, CO2 levels dropped back to normal over roughly the next 150,000 years.[35][36]
Sudden releases of methane from clathrate compounds (the clathrate gun hypothesis) have been hypothesized as a cause for other warming events in the distant past, including the Permian-Triassic extinction event (about 251 million years ago) and the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (about 55 million years ago).
Climate models


The projected temperature increase for a range of stabilization scenarios (the coloured bands). The black line in middle of the shaded area indicates 'best estimates'; the red and the blue lines the likely limits. From the work of IPCC AR4, 2007.


Calculations of global warming prepared in or before 2001 from a range of climate models under the SRES A2 emissions scenario, which assumes no action is taken to reduce emissions.


The geographic distribution of surface warming during the 21st century calculated by the HadCM3 climate model if a business as usual scenario is assumed for economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. In this figure, the globally averaged warming corresponds to 3.0 °C (5.4 °F).
Main article: Global climate model
Scientists have studied global warming with computer models of the climate. These models are based on physical principles of fluid dynamics, radiative transfer, and other processes, with some simplifications being necessary because of limitations in computer power. These models predict that the net effect of adding greenhouse gases is to produce a warmer climate. However, even when the same assumptions of fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emission are used, the amount of projected warming varies between models and there still remains a considerable range of climate sensitivity.
Including uncertainties in future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate modelling, the IPCC anticipates a warming of 1.1 °C to 6.4 °C (2.0 °F to 11.5 °F) between 1990 and 2100.[1] Models have also been used to help investigate the causes of recent climate change by comparing the observed changes to those that the models project from various natural and human derived causes.
Climate models can produce a good match to observations of global temperature changes over the last century, but cannot yet simulate all aspects of climate.[37] These models do not unambiguously attribute the warming that occurred from approximately 1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or human effects; however, they suggest that the warming since 1975 is dominated by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.
Most global climate models, when run to project future climate, are forced by imposed greenhouse gas scenarios, generally one from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Less commonly, models may be run by adding a simulation of the carbon cycle; this generally shows a positive feedback, though this response is uncertain (under the A2 SRES scenario, responses vary between an extra 20 and 200 ppm of CO2). Some observational studies also show a positive feedback.[38][39][40]
The representation of clouds is one of the main sources of uncertainty in present-generation models, though progress is being made on this problem.[41] There is also an ongoing discussion as to whether climate models are neglecting important indirect and feedback effects of solar variability.
Attributed and expected effects
Main article: Effects of global warming


Sparse records indicate that glaciers have been retreating since the early 1800s. In the 1950s measurements began that allow the monitoring of glacial mass balance, reported to the WGMS and the NSIDC.
Some effects on both the natural environment and human life are, at least in part, already being attributed to global warming. A 2001 report by the IPCC suggests that glacier retreat, ice shelf disruption such as the Larsen Ice Shelf, sea level rise, changes in rainfall patterns, increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, are being attributed in part to global warming.[42] While changes are expected for overall patterns, intensity, and frequencies, it is difficult to attribute specific events to global warming. Other expected effects include water scarcity in some regions and increased precipitation in others, changes in mountain snowpack, adverse health effects from warmer temperatures.
Increasing deaths, displacements, and economic losses projected due to extreme weather attributed to global warming may be exacerbated by growing population densities in affected areas, although temperate regions are projected to experience some minor benefits, such as fewer deaths due to cold exposure.[43] A summary of probable effects and recent understanding can be found in the report made for the IPCC Third Assessment Report by Working Group II.[42] The newer IPCC Fourth Assessment Report summary reports that there is observational evidence for an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Ocean since about 1970, in correlation with the increase in sea surface temperature, but that the detection of long-term trends is complicated by the quality of records prior to routine satellite observations. The summary also states that there is no clear trend in the annual worldwide number of tropical cyclones.[1]
Additional anticipated effects include sea level rise of 110 to 770 millimeters (0.36 to 2.5 ft) between 1990 and 2100,[44] repercussions to agriculture, possible slowing of the thermohaline circulation, reductions in the ozone layer, increased intensity and frequency of hurricanes and extreme weather events, lowering of ocean pH, and the spread of diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. One study predicts 18% to 35% of a sample of 1,103 animal and plant species would be extinct by 2050, based on future climate projections.[45] Two populations of Bay checkerspot butterfly are being threatened by changes in precipitation, though few mechanistic studies have documented extinctions due to recent climate change.[46]
Economics
Main article: Economics of global warming
Some economists have tried to estimate the aggregate net economic costs of damages from climate change across the globe. Such estimates have so far failed to reach conclusive findings; in a survey of 100 estimates, the values ran from US$-10 per tonne of carbon (tC) (US$-3 per tonne of carbon dioxide) up to US$350/tC (US$95 per tonne of carbon dioxide), with a mean of US$43 per tonne of carbon (US$12 per tonne of carbon dioxide).[43] One widely-publicized report on potential economic impact is the Stern Review; it suggests that extreme weather might reduce global gross domestic product by up to 1%, and that in a worst case scenario global per capita consumption could fall 20%.[47] The report's methodology, advocacy and conclusions has been criticized by many economists, primarily around the Review's assumptions of discounting and its choices of scenarios.[48] , while others have supported the general attempt to quantify economic risk, even if not the specific numbers[49] [50].
In a summary of economic cost associated with climate change, the United Nations Environment Programme emphasizes the risks to insurers, reinsurers, and banks of increasingly traumatic and costly weather events. Other economic sectors likely to face difficulties related to climate change include agriculture and transport. Developing countries, rather than the developed world, are at greatest economic risk.[51]
Mitigation and adaptation
Main articles: Mitigation of global warming, adaptation to global warming, and Kyoto Protocol
The broad agreement among climate scientists that global temperatures will continue to increase has led nations, states, corporations and individuals to implement actions to try to curtail global warming or adjust to it. Many environmental groups encourage action against global warming, often by the consumer, but also by community and regional organizations. There has been business action on climate change, including efforts at increased energy efficiency and (still limited) moves to alternative fuels. One important innovation has been the development of greenhouse gas emissions trading through which companies, in conjunction with government, agree to cap their emissions or to purchase credits from those below their allowances.
The world's primary international agreement on combating global warming is the Kyoto Protocol, an amendment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), negotiated in 1997. The Protocol now covers more than 160 countries globally and over 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions.[52] The United States (historically the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter), Australia, and Kazakhstan have not ratified the treaty. China and India, two other large emitters, have ratified the treaty but, as developing countries, are exempt from its provisions. This treaty expires in 2012, and international talks began in May 2007 on a future treaty to succeed the current one.[53]
The world's primary body for crafting a response is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a UN-sponsored activity which holds periodic meetings between national delegations on the problems of global warming, and issues working papers and assessments on the current status of the science of climate change, impacts, and mitigation. It convenes four different working groups examining various specific issues. For example, in May 2007, the IPCC held conferences in Bonn, Germany,[54] and in Bangkok, Thailand.[55]
Issue debate and political processes
Main articles: Global warming controversy and politics of global warming
Increased awareness of the scientific findings surrounding global warming has resulted in political and economic debate. Poor regions, particularly Africa, appear at greatest risk from the suggested effects of global warming, while their actual emissions have been negligible compared to the developed world[56]. At the same time, developing country exemptions from provisions of the Kyoto Protocol have been criticized by the United States and been used as part of its justification for continued non-ratification.[57] In the Western world, the idea of human influence on climate and efforts to combat it has gained wider acceptance in Europe than in the United States.[58][59]
Fossil fuel companies such as ExxonMobil and some think tanks such as the Competitive Enterprise Institute and the Cato Institute have campaigned to downplay the risks of climate change,[60][61] while environmental groups have launched campaigns emphasizing the risks. Recently, some fossil fuel companies have scaled back such efforts[62] or called for policies to reduce global warming.[63]
This issue has sparked debate in the U.S. about the benefits of limiting industrial emissions of greenhouse gases to reduce impacts to the climate, versus the effects on economic activity.[64][65] There has also been discussion in several countries about the cost of adopting alternate, cleaner energy sources in order to reduce emissions.[66]
Another point of debate is the degree to which newly-developed economies, like India and China, should be expected to constrain their emissions. China's CO2 emissions are expected to exceed those of the U.S. within the next few years (and according to one report may have already done so[67]).
Related climatic issues
Main articles: Ocean acidification, global dimming, and ozone depletion
A variety of issues are often raised in relation to global warming. One is ocean acidification. Increased atmospheric CO2 increases the amount of CO2 dissolved in the oceans.[68] CO2 dissolved in the ocean reacts with water to form carbonic acid resulting in acidification. Ocean surface pH is estimated to have decreased from approximately 8.25 to 8.14 since the beginning of the industrial era,[69] and it is estimated that it will drop by a further 0.14 to 0.5 units by 2100 as the ocean absorbs more CO2.[1][70] Since organisms and ecosystems are adapted to a narrow range of pH, this raises extinction concerns, directly driven by increased atmospheric CO2, that could disrupt food webs and impact human societies that depend on marine ecosystem services.[71]
Another related issue that may have partially mitigated global warming in the late twentieth century is global dimming, the gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth's surface. From 1960 to 1990 human-caused aerosols likely precipitated this effect. Scientists have stated with 66–90% confidence that the effects of human-caused aerosols, along with volcanic activity, have offset some of global warming, and that greenhouse gases would have resulted in more warming than observed if not for these dimming agents.[1]
Ozone depletion, the steady decline in the total amount of ozone in Earth's stratosphere, is frequently cited in relation to global warming. Although there are areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong.
See also

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Further reading
· Amstrup, Steven C.; Ian Stirling, Tom S. Smith, Craig Perham, Gregory W. Thiemann (2006-04-27). "Recent observations of intraspecific predation and cannibalism among polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea". Polar Biology 29 (11): 997–1002. DOI:10.1007/s00300-006-0142-5.
· Association of British Insurers (2005-06). Financial Risks of Climate Change (PDF).
· Barnett, Tim P.; J. C. Adam, D. P. Lettenmaier (2005-11-17). "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions". Nature 438 (7066): 303–309. DOI:10.1038/nature04141.
· Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Robert T. O'Malley, David A. Siegel, Charles R. McClain, Jorge L. Sarmiento, Gene C. Feldman, Allen G. Milligan, Paul G. Falkowski, Ricardo M. Letelier, Emanuel S. Boss (2006-12-07). "Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity" (PDF). Nature 444 (7120): 752–755. DOI:10.1038/nature05317.
· Choi, Onelack; Ann Fisher (May 2005). "The Impacts of Socioeconomic Development and Climate Change on Severe Weather Catastrophe Losses: Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and the U.S.". Climate Change 58 (1–2): 149–170. DOI:10.1023/A:1023459216609.
· Dyurgerov, Mark B.; Mark F. Meier (2005). Glaciers and the Changing Earth System: a 2004 Snapshot (PDF), Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research Occasional Paper #58. ISSN 0069-6145.
· Emanuel, Kerry A. (2005-08-04). "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years." (PDF). Nature 436 (7051): 686–688. DOI:10.1038/nature03906.
· Hansen, James; Larissa Nazarenko, Reto Ruedy, Makiko Sato, Josh Willis, Anthony Del Genio, Dorothy Koch, Andrew Lacis, Ken Lo, Surabi Menon, Tica Novakov, Judith Perlwitz, Gary Russell, Gavin A. Schmidt, Nicholas Tausnev (2005-06-03). "Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications" (PDF). Science 308 (5727): 1431–1435. DOI:10.1126/science.1110252.
· Hinrichs, Kai-Uwe; Laura R. Hmelo, Sean P. Sylva (2003-02-21). "Molecular Fossil Record of Elevated Methane Levels in Late Pleistocene Coastal Waters". Science 299 (5610): 1214–1217. DOI:10.1126/science.1079601.
· Hirsch, Tim. "Plants revealed as methane source", BBC, 2006-01-11.
· Hoyt, Douglas V.; Kenneth H. Schatten (1993–11). "A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, 1700–1992". Journal of Geophysical Research 98 (A11): 18,895–18,906.
· Kenneth, James P.; Kevin G. Cannariato, Ingrid L. Hendy, Richard J. Behl (2003-02-14). Methane Hydrates in Quaternary Climate Change: The Clathrate Gun Hypothesis. American Geophysical Union.
· Keppler, Frank, Marc Brass, Jack Hamilton, Thomas Röckmann. "Global Warming - The Blame Is not with the Plants", Max Planck Society, 2006-01-18.
· Kurzweil, Raymond (2006–07). "Nanotech Could Give Global Warming a Big Chill" (PDF). Forbes / Wolfe Nanotech Report 5 (7).
· Lean, Judith L.; Y.M. Wang, N.R. Sheeley (2002–12). "The effect of increasing solar activity on the Sun's total and open magnetic flux during multiple cycles: Implications for solar forcing of climate". Geophysical Research Letters 29 (24). DOI:10.1029/2002GL015880.
· Lerner, K. Lee; Brenda Wilmoth Lerner (2006-07-26). Environmental issues : essential primary sources.. Thomson Gale. ISBN 1414406258.
· McLaughlin, Joseph B.; Angelo DePaola, Cheryl A. Bopp, Karen A. Martinek, Nancy P. Napolilli, Christine G. Allison, Shelley L. Murray, Eric C. Thompson, Michele M. Bird, John P. Middaugh (2005-10-06). "Outbreak of Vibrio parahaemolyticus gastroenteritis associated with Alaskan oysters". New England Journal of Medicine 353 (14): 1463–1470. (online version requires registration)
· Muscheler, Raimund; Fortunat Joos, Simon A. Müller, Ian Snowball (2005-07-28). "Climate: How unusual is today's solar activity?" (PDF). Nature 436 (7012): 1084–1087. DOI:10.1038/nature04045.
· Oerlemans, J. (2005-04-29). "Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records" (PDF). Science 308 (5722): 675–677. DOI:10.1126/science.1107046.
· Oreskes, Naomi (2004-12-03). "Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change" (PDF). Science 306 (5702): 1686. DOI:10.1126/science.1103618.
· Purse, Bethan V.; Philip S. Mellor, David J. Rogers, Alan R. Samuel, Peter P. C. Mertens, Matthew Baylis (February 2005). "Climate change and the recent emergence of bluetongue in Europe". Nature Reviews Microbiology 3 (2): 171–181. DOI:10.1038/nrmicro1090.
· Revkin, Andrew C. "Rise in Gases Unmatched by a History in Ancient Ice", The New York Times, 2005-11-05.
· Ruddiman, William F. (2005-12-15). Earth's Climate Past and Future. New York: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-7167-3741-8.
· Ruddiman, William F. (2005-08-01). Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate. New Jersey: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-12164-8.
· Solanki, Sami K.; I.G. Usoskin, B. Kromer, M. Schussler, J. Beer (2004-10-23). "Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years." (PDF). Nature 431: 1084–1087. DOI:10.1038/nature02995.
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External links
Scientific
· Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
· Nature Reports Climate Change
· NOAA's Global Warming FAQ
· Outgoing Longwave Radiation pentad mean - NOAA Climate Prediction Center
· Discovery of Global Warming — An extensive introduction to the topic and the history of its discovery
· Caution urged on climate 'risks'
· NASA Finds Sun-Climate Connection in Old Nile Records
· News in Science - Night flights are worse for global warming - 15/06/2006
Educational
· What Is Global Warming? Simulation from National Geographic
· The EdGCM (Educational Global Climate Modelling) Project free research-quality simulation for students, educators, and scientists alike, with a user-friendly interface that runs on desktop computers
· Daily global temperatures and trends from satellites Interactive graphics from NASA
· The Pew Center on global climate change
Other
· The Global Warming Survival Guide from Time.com
· UBS Launches First Global Warming Index "UBS-GWI"
· Global Warming News & Articles Portal
· UN: rearing cattle produces more greenhouse gases than driving cars
· Science and Technology Librarianship: Global Warming and Climate Change Science – Extensive commented list of Internet resources – Science and Technology Sources on the Internet.
· Union of Concerned Scientists Global Warming page
· Watch and read 'Tipping Point', Australian science documentary about effects of global warming on rare, common, and endangered wildlife
· Newest reports on U.S. EPA website
· IPS Inter Press Service — Independent news on global warming and its consequences.
· Indonesia Counts Its Islands Before It Is Too Late
· World Environment Day 2007 "Melting Ice" image gallery at The Guardian
· Climate Counts - corporate watchdog
[hide]
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Global warming and Climate change (Category:Global warming and Category:Climate change)
Temperatures
Instrumental recordSatellite recordPast 1000 yearsGeologic record
Causes
Scientific opinion on climate change
Greenhouse GasesGlobal warming potentialGreenhouse effectCarbon dioxideKeeling CurveClimate sensitivitySolar variationRadiative forcingGlobal dimmingGlobal cooling
Urban heat islandCloud forcingDeforestationGlaciationOcean variabilityPlate tectonicsOrbital variationsVolcanism
Models
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Issues
Ozone depletionOcean acidification
Politics
Global warming controversyIntergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeScientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming
Effects
Sea level riseGlacier retreatGlobal warming and agricultureNational Assessment on Climate ChangeEconomics of global warmingShutdown of thermohaline circulation
Mitigation
Kyoto ProtocolEmissions tradingCarbon taxClean Development MechanismCarbon dioxide sink (Carbon sequestration) • Energy conservationRenewable energyRenewable energy developmentSoft energy path
Adaptation
United Kingdom Climate Change ProgrammeEuropean Climate Change Programme
Retrieved from "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming"
Categories: Semi-protected | Climate change | Climate change feedbacks and causes | History of climate | Global warming | Economic problems
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