金融危機…都是槓桿惹的禍

金融危機槓桿
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1. 金融危機繼續深化歐元短期難有起色-財經新聞-新浪新聞中心
2008年10月23日 ... 從中不難看出，由於美國次級債危機所演變的全球金融危機並沒有結束，同時從外匯市場 ... 從高槓桿率來看，歐洲的金融機構並未見得比美國的投行要好。 ...news.sina.com.tw/article/20081023/986133.html - 類似網頁
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1 篇文章 - 1 位作者
有文章指出危機的根源是金融機構採用"杠杆"交易;另一些專家指出金融危機的背後是62萬億的信用違約掉期(Credit Default Swap, CDS).那麼,次貸,杠杆和CDS之間究竟是什麼 ...www.ck101.com/forums/viewthread.php?tid=1349085 - 21k - 頁庫存檔 - 類似網頁
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看懂天下事》金融危機…都是槓桿惹的禍

【聯合報╱林建甫】
2008.10.24 02:06 am

幾年前一位經濟學界的大老問我，說他研究經濟成長大半輩子，了解世界實質的年經濟成長率了不起3%，為什麼金融商品的年報酬經常是10%、20%，甚至還更高？這些報酬數字是真的嗎？有沒有欺騙投資人的可能？我當場回答他，一切的玄機在「財務槓桿」。
大家都學過：槓桿。財務槓桿就是把槓桿應用在財務上。阿基米德說：給我一個支點，可以舉起整個地球。槓桿就是可以以小搏大，可以省力，可以賺大錢，也可以虧大本。
一般人融資買股票，融資成數如為五成，就是需有五成自備款，就是一塊錢當兩塊錢來投資。股票漲一倍，你就賺兩倍。但是當空頭來襲，當保證金維持比率不足，就會被斷頭。最慘的時候，賣股票，不但沒錢拿回來，還要再貼錢進去。
當前金融海嘯，最大的問題在投資銀行。世界第五大投資銀行貝爾斯登在今年三月就已掛點。第三大的雷曼兄弟，9月14日宣告破產，掀起這一波危機。第四大的美林隨後被美國銀行收購。老大老二的高盛、摩根士丹利，也搖搖欲墜，透過美國政府7000億紓困才保住命脈。
投資銀行的問題在槓桿玩得很凶。美林的槓桿率從2003年的15倍飆升至去年的28倍。摩根士丹利的槓桿率攀升至33倍，高盛也達到28倍。1997年亞洲金融風暴後，由諾貝爾經濟學獎得主休斯與莫頓主持的「長期資本管理公司」因俄羅斯拒付國債，導致瀕臨破產危機，當時的財務槓桿達到了57倍。實在是建立在沙灘上的城堡。
這些銀行，財務槓桿20、30倍，因為次貸危機逐漸周轉不靈，也是要被斷頭，於是就開始搬錢回去救美國母公司。台股、亞股之前體質相對好，價位還是高，就成了這些外資救火的水喉，或是提款機。當他們拚命賣，我們股票的價格就一直跌，神仙也難救無命客。國安基金進去護盤，就讓他們提得更多。所以政府後來宣布跌幅減半，其實就是要讓股市不要被大量提款，從每天跌停最高7%減為3.5%，慢慢的跌。想賣、想提款的，賣不出去，那是他們家的事。不要讓台股快速的跌，跌破信心水準，傷了體質，日後爬不起來，那就麻煩了。
此次次貸危機轉變成信貸危機主要源於目前出現危機的金融機構為了自救，正在去槓桿化（deleverage），填補負債或以削減風險性資產，拯救具有價值的資產和留下具有競爭優勢的業務。這個過程，放款業務會緊縮，銀行資產會出售，會抽空實體經濟中的信貸，因而影響到企業和個人貸款。信貸危機因而產生，甚至一朝被蛇咬，十年怕草繩。連體質好的銀行為了自保，寧願將現金投入收益率極低的國債，也不願將其借給其他公司和銀行。這種私營部門從高槓桿到低槓桿過度急劇的轉換，因個體的理性導致了系統的非理性，是典型的市場失靈。
解決這場危機的辦法是用政府的槓桿來彌補私營部門的槓桿。政府紓困，對銀行存款和銀行同業拆借提供無限制擔保，可以緊急穩定軍情，恢復公眾對銀行體系的信心。
瑞士銀行和瑞士信貸之前因瑞士在槓桿比率方面沒有限制，是次貸風暴下最早中鏢的一批。瑞士聯邦銀行委員會已要求銀行將財務槓桿率控制在一定水平之下。未來美國政府勢必訂定嚴格的法律，禁止金融財務槓桿過度操作。這個趨勢也是這些金融玩家搞垮雷曼兄弟等銀行之後，留給後世的最大貢獻。
（本文作者為台灣大學經濟學系教授、台灣競爭力論壇學會理事長）
【2008/10/24 聯合報】@ http://udn.com/
http://www.ck101.com/forums/viewthread.php?tid=1349085
讓你全面瞭解當前世界金融危機的成因！（轉貼）
讓你全面瞭解當前世界金融危機文章提交者：guanggan01 加帖在 貓眼看人 【凱迪網路】 http://www.kdnet.net
對金融危機最普遍的官方解釋是次貸問題,然而次貸總共不過幾千億,而美國政府救市資金早已到了萬億以上,為 什麼危機還是看不到頭?有文章指出危機的根源是金融機構採用"杠杆"交易;另一些專家指出金融危機的背後是62萬億的信用違約掉期(Credit Default Swap, CDS).那麼,次貸,杠杆和CDS之間究竟是什麼關係?它們之間通過什麼樣的相互作用產生了今天的金融危機?在眾多的金融危機分析文章中,始終沒有看到 對這些問題的簡單明瞭的解釋.本文試圖通過自己的理解為這些問題提供一個答案,為通俗易懂起見,我們使用了幾個假想的例子.有不恰當之處歡迎批評討論. 一.杠杆.目前,許多投資銀行為了賺取暴利, 20-30採用倍杠杆操作,假設一個銀行A自身資產為30億, 30倍杠杆就是900億.也就是說,這個銀行A以30億資產為抵押去借900億的資金用於投資,假如投資盈利5%,那麼A就獲得45億的盈利,相對於A自 身資產而言,這是150%的暴利.反過來,假如投資虧損5% ,那麼銀行A賠光了自己的全部資產還欠億15. 二.合同CDS.由於杠杆操作高風險,所以按照正常的規定,銀行不運行進行這樣的冒險操作.所以就有人想出一個辦法,把杠杆投資拿去做"保險." 這種保險就叫CDS .比如,銀行A為了逃避杠杆風險就找到了機構B.機構B可能是另一家銀行,也可能是保險公司,諸如此類. A對B說,你幫我的貸款做違約保險怎麼樣,我每年付你保險費5千萬,連續10年,總共5億,假如我的投資沒有違約,那麼這筆保險費你就白拿了,假如違約,你要 為我賠償. A想,如果不違約,我可以賺45億,這裡面拿出5億用來做保險,我還能淨賺40億.如果有違約,反正有保險來賠.所以對A而言這是一筆只賺不賠 的生意for.B是一個精明的人,沒有立即答應A的邀請,而是回去做了一個統計分析,發現違約的情況不到1%.如果做一百家的生意,總計可以拿到500億的 保險金,如果其中一家違約,賠償額最多不過50億,即使兩家違約,還能賺400億. A, B雙方都認為這筆買賣對自己有利,因此立即拍板成交,皆大歡喜. 三.市場CDS. B做了這筆保險生意之後, C在旁邊眼紅了.就跑到B那邊說,你把這100個CDS賣給我怎麼樣,每個合同給你2億,總共200億. B想,我的400億要10年才能拿到,現在一轉手就有200億,而且沒有 風險,何樂而不為,因此和B C馬上就成交了.這樣一來, CDS就像股票一樣流到了金融市場之上,可以交易和買賣.實際上C拿到這批CDS之後,並不想等上10年再收取200億,而是把它掛牌出售,標價220億; D看到這個產品,算了一下, 400億減去億220,還有180億可賺,這是"原始股"不算貴,立即買了下來.一轉手, C賺了20億.從此以後,這些CDS就在市場上反復的抄,現在CDS的市場總值已經抄到了62兆美元. 四.次貸.上面A, B, C, D, E, F. ...都在賺大錢,那麼這些錢到底從那裡冒出來的呢?從根本上說,這些錢來自A以及同A相仿的投資人的盈利.而他們的盈利大半來自美國的次級貸款.人們說 次貸危機是由於把錢借給了窮人.筆者對這個說法不以為然.筆者以為,次貸主要是給了普通的美國房產投資人.這些人的經濟實力本來只夠買自己的一套住房,但是看到房價快速上漲,動起了房產投機的主意.他們把自己的房子抵押出去,貸款買投資房.這類貸款利息要在8% -9%以上,憑他們自己的收入很難對付,不過他們可以繼續把房子抵押給銀行,借錢付利息,空手套白狼.此時A很高興,他的投資在為他賺錢; B也很高興,市場違約率很低,保險生意可以繼續做;後面的C, D, E, F等等都跟著賺錢. 五.次貸危機.房價漲到一定的程度就漲不上去了,後面沒人接盤.此時房產投機人急得像熱鍋上的螞蟻.房子賣不出去,高額利息要不停的付,終於到了走頭無路的一天,把房子甩給了銀行.此時違約就發生了.此時A感到一絲遺憾,大錢賺不著了,不過也虧不到那裡,反正有B做保險. B也不擔心,反正保險已經賣給了C.那麼現在這份CDS保險在那裡呢,在G手裡. G剛從F手裡花了300億買下了100個CDS,還沒來得及轉手,突然接到消息,這批CDS被降級,其中有20個違約,大大超出原先估計的1%到2%的違約率. 每個違約要支付50億的保險金,總共支出達1000億.加上300億CDS收購費, G的虧損總計達1300億.雖然G是全美排行前10名的大機構,也經不起如此巨大的虧損.因此G瀕臨倒閉. 六.金融危機.如果G倒閉,那麼A花費5億美元買的保險就泡了湯,更糟糕的是,由於A採用了杠杆原理投資,根據前面的分析, A賠光全部資產也不夠還債. A因此立即面臨破產的危險.除了A之外,還有A2, A3 ,..., A20,統統要準備倒閉.因此G, A, A2 ,..., A20一起來到美國財政部長面前,一把鼻涕一把眼淚地遊說, G萬萬不能倒閉,它一倒閉大家都完了.財政部長心一軟,就把G給國有化了,此後A ,..., A20的保險金總計1000億美元全部由美國納稅人支付. 七.美元危機.上面講到的100個CDS的市場價是300億.而CDS市場總值是62兆,假設其中有10%的違約,那麼就有6兆的違約CDS.這個數字是300億的200倍.如果說美國政府收購價值300億的CDS之後要賠出1000億.那麼對於剩下的那些違約CDS,美國政府就要賠出 20兆.如果不賠,就要看著A20, A21, A22等等一個接一個倒閉.無論採取什麼措施,美元大貶值已經不可避免.

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Greenspan takes one on the chin, admits flaws in system By Sue Kirchhoff, USA TODAY http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-10-23-greenspan-congress_N.htm
WASHINGTON — The Oracle was blindsided.
Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan told angry lawmakers Thursday he was "shocked" to discover — as a once-in-a-century financial crisis spread — that his bedrock belief that financial firms could police themselves turned out to be "flawed."
"I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organizations, specifically banks and others, were such as that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity," Greenspan, described as a maestro and an oracle while at the central bank, told a House committee. Greenspan called that "a flaw in the model ... that defines how the world works."
He said the nation faces a "once-in-a century credit tsunami."
FINANCIAL CRISIS: Jobless claims increase
MORE ON CRISIS: Financial meeting of world leaders
Greenspan, who left the Fed in 2006, spent much of the hearing pushing back against lawmakers who said he did not do enough to protect consumers at the Fed.
"You had the authority to prevent irresponsible lending … and now our whole economy is paying its price," said Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif.
Waxman asked Greenspan if his free-market ideology "pushed you to make decisions that you wish you had not made." Greenspan, for example, opposed efforts to regulate derivatives: financial products whose value depends on the movement of other assets like commodities or stock indexes.
Greenspan said many parts of the derivatives market are performing well. He said it was difficult for Fed officials, who oversee just one slice of the U.S. banking industry, to gauge the breadth of problems in the mortgage market.
Greenspan and former Treasury secretary John Snow said they pushed Congress unsuccessfully to tighten rules for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The government took over the firms last month.
"I feel like I'm looking out there at three Bill Buckners," Rep. John Yarmuth, D-Ky., told Greenspan, Snow and Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Chris Cox, who also testified. Buckner was a Boston Red Sox player who made a critical error in a 1986 World Series game.
The hearing came as the Bush administration stepped up efforts to combat the crisis. The government should have a plan to help homeowners rework their mortgages within weeks, Treasury official Neel Kashkari told a separate Senate hearing.
One possibility is loan guarantees for financial institutions that modify mortgages to make them more affordable. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairwoman Sheila Bair backed the guarantees.
The financial crisis even prompted the Republican Greenspan, a staunch believer in free markets, to propose that government consider tougher regulations, including requiring financial firms that package mortgages into securities to keep a portion as a check on quality.
He said other regulatory changes should be considered, too, in such areas as fraud.
Greenspan's interrogation by the House Oversight Committee was a far cry from his 18 1/2 years as Fed chairman, when he presided over the longest economic boom in the country's history. He was viewed as a free-market icon on Wall Street and held in respect bordering on awe by most members of Congress.
Not now. At an often contentious four-hour hearing, Greenspan, Snow and Cox were repeatedly accused by Democrats on the committee of pursuing an anti-regulation agenda that set the stage for the biggest financial crisis in 70 years.
"The list of regulatory mistakes and misjudgments is long," panel chairman Henry Waxman declared.
Greenspan, 82, acknowledged that he had also been wrong in rejecting fears that the five-year housing boom was turning into an unsustainable speculative bubble that could harm the economy when it burst. Greenspan maintained during that period that home prices were unlikely to post a significant decline nationally because housing was a local market.
He said Thursday that he held to that belief because until the current housing slump there had never been such a significant decline in prices nationwide. He said the current financial crisis had "turned out to be much broader than anything that I could have imagined."
Greenspan was asked to defend a variety of actions he took as Federal Reserve chairman — resisting recommendations to use the Fed's powers to crack down on subprime mortgages, for one. And opposing efforts to impose regulations on derivatives, the complex financial instruments that include credit default swaps, which have also figured prominently in the current crisis.
He said that outside of credit default swaps, the bulk of financial derivatives had not caused major problems. He said the boom in subprime lending occurred because of the huge demand for investment opportunities in a global economy, and he blamed the crash on a failure by investors to properly assess the risks from such mortgages, which went to borrowers with weak credit.
As for firms that package mortgages into securities, he said, "As much as I would prefer it otherwise, in this financial environment I see no choice but to require that all securitizers retain a meaningful part of the securities they issue."
On the billions of dollars of losses suffered by financial institutions because of their investments in subprime mortgages, Greenspan said he had been shocked by the failure of banking officials to protect their shareholders from their bad loan decisions.
"A critical pillar to market competition and free markets did break down," Greenspan said. "I still do not fully understand why it happened."
Contributing: Associated Press
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collateralized debt obligation: Definition from Answers.comJunior tranche investors achieve a leveraged, non-recourse investment in the underlying .... Main article: 2007 Subprime mortgage financial crisis ...www.answers.com/topic/collateralized-debt-obligation
Financial Crisis: Extreme leverage haunts Europe's banks as ...Oct 10, 2008 ... Europe's credit markets have continued to seize up on mounting fears that the region's banks may fail to roll over $700bn (£405bn) debt ...www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/ financialcrisis/3167438/Financial-Crisis-Extreme-levera...
speculation: Definition, Synonyms from Answers.comThe practice is defended as tending to stabilize prices and guide investment; it is attacked as the mechanism of financial crisis and panic when prices ...www.answers.com/topic/speculation
Leverage 101: The Real Cause of the Financial Crisis - Seeking AlphaSep 25, 2008 ... What really caused the magnitude of the current financial crisis, in my opinion, was the amount of leverage used in the housing market and ...seekingalpha.com/article/ 97299-leverage-101-the-real-cause-of-the-financial-crisis
George Soros: Biography from Answers.comSoros then used massive amounts of leverage to strengthen his positions. ..... In 1997, during the Asian financial crisis, then Malaysian Prime Minister ...www.answers.com/topic/george-soros
Financial Crisis Extreme leverage haunts Europe's banks as ...Oct 9, 2008 ... Analysis/Comments Europe's credit markets have continued to seize ...www.newstin.co.uk/tag/uk/80348941
Resolution Trust Corporation: Definition from Answers.comIt was created by the Financial Institutions Reform Recovery and Enforcement Act ... The MIF asset portfolio was leveraged by RTC-provided seller financing. ...www.answers.com/topic/resolution-trust-corporation
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